Dota Pro Circuit 2021/2022: Season 2 — Западная Европа · BO3
result vs prediction
Winter Bearloss 0:2series probability
32%68%
probability at match start · final 0:2
CHILLAXwin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Winter Bear
Omniknightoften banned
Flash · 7 games
Gyrocopter
Exotic Deer · 6 games
Snapfire
Ekki · 5 games
Puckoften banned
ntakii · 4 games
Tusk
Ekki · 4 games
Weaveroften banned
Ekki · 4 games
Wraith Kingoften banned
Exotic Deer · 4 games
Tinyoften banned
Exotic Deer · 3 games
CHILLAX
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Bane
446 picks · 271 bans
Mars
375 picks · 517 bans
Queen of Pain
370 picks · 498 bans
Weaver
350 picks · 477 bans
Death Prophet
288 picks · 441 bans
Kunkka
283 picks · 501 bans
Grimstroke
265 picks · 184 bans
Ember Spirit
262 picks · 315 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)60% vs 65%
Hero pool strength50% Winter Bear
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total68% CHILLAX
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct9:31
Winter Bear 32%CHILLAX 68%
The model gave 68% on CHILLAX — the game was taken by CHILLAX in 24:50.
Game 2prediction correct18:30
Winter Bear 32%CHILLAX 68%
The model gave 68% on CHILLAX — the game was taken by CHILLAX in 29:55.
Model check result
Model favoriteCHILLAX · 68%
Series resultCHILLAX 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2