CCT Season 2 Series 1 · BO3
result vs prediction
Winter Bearloss 0:2series probability
42%58%
probability at match start · final 0:2
eSpoiledwin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Winter Bear
Phoenix
Delight · 13 games
Dark Willow
jAMES · 6 games
Nyx Assassin
Delight · 5 games
Shadow Demon
Delight · 4 games
Clinkz
Delight · 3 games
Lion
Delight · 3 games
Bounty Hunter
Delight · 2 games
Clockwerk
jAMES · 2 games
eSpoiled
Tusksignature
Wein · 6 games
Ursaoften banned
ssnovv1 · 4 games
Windranger
Wein · 4 games
Drow Rangeroften banned
ssnovv1 · 3 games
Naga Sirenoften banned
asdekor_r · 3 games
Oracleoften banned
asdekor_r · 3 games
Shadow Shamanoften banned
Wein · 3 games
Ancient Apparitionoften banned
asdekor_r · 2 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
521 picks · 598 bans
Jakiro
474 picks · 433 bans
Ringmaster
469 picks · 237 bans
Terrorblade
369 picks · 765 bans
Storm Spirit
347 picks · 507 bans
Ancient Apparition
337 picks · 786 bans
Tusk
323 picks · 294 bans
Shadow Shaman
306 picks · 330 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)47% vs 57%
Hero pool strength56% eSpoiled
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total58% eSpoiled
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct12:37
Winter Bear 49%eSpoiled 51%
The model gave 51% on eSpoiled — the game was taken by eSpoiled in 30:49.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Ember SpiritG.T.I
Terrorbladessnovv1
Ancient ApparitionStoic
WindrangerWein
RubickJeezy
Crystal Maidenasdekor_r
Game 2prediction correct26:55
Winter Bear 46%eSpoiled 54%
The model gave 54% on eSpoiled — the game was taken by eSpoiled in 36:40.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
TinyG.T.I
Svenssnovv1
Nature's ProphetStoic
Warlockasdekor_r
RingmasterJeezy
BatriderWein
Model check result
Model favoriteeSpoiled · 58%
Series resulteSpoiled 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2