European Pro League Season 30 · BO3
result vs prediction
Winter Bearloss 0:2series probability
46%54%
probability at match start · final 0:2
eSpoiledwin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Winter Bear
Phoenix
Delight · 7 games
Clinkz
Delight · 3 games
Shadow Fiendoften banned
Panda · 3 games
Ember Spiritoften banned
Panda · 2 games
Invokeroften banned
Jeezy · 2 games
Keeper of the Lightoften banned
Jeezy · 2 games
Muerta
Delight · 2 games
Naga Sirenoften banned
Stoic · 2 games
eSpoiled
Bane
asdekor_r · 17 games
Marcioften banned
Wein · 16 games
Batrideroften banned
Wein · 14 games
Chensignature
asdekor_r · 13 games
Disruptor
asdekor_r · 12 games
Shadow Shaman
Wein · 12 games
Tusk
Wein · 12 games
Pugna
asdekor_r · 11 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Puck
290 picks · 684 bans
Shadow Shaman
289 picks · 184 bans
Dawnbreaker
255 picks · 643 bans
Tusk
255 picks · 250 bans
Dark Willow
251 picks · 107 bans
Disruptor
250 picks · 213 bans
Nature's Prophet
247 picks · 537 bans
Marci
243 picks · 579 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 38%
Hero pool strength50% Winter Bear
Head-to-head0 – 1
Model total54% eSpoiled
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct11:33
Winter Bear 46%eSpoiled 54%
The model gave 54% on eSpoiled — the game was taken by eSpoiled in 35:02.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Dragon KnightPanda
Faceless Voidssnovv1
45% · 81 game
Storm SpiritDifference
52% · 81 game
Phoenixasdekor_r
54% · 31 game
SnapfireWein
Game 2prediction correct2:23
Winter Bear 46%eSpoiled 54%
The model gave 54% on eSpoiled — the game was taken by eSpoiled in 17:32.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
TimbersawPanda
Anti-Magessnovv1
50% · 6 games
SlardarDifference
56% · 35 games
Chenasdekor_r
54% · 22 games
SnapfireWein
Model check result
Model favoriteeSpoiled · 54%
Series resulteSpoiled 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2