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Dota Pro Circuit 2021/2022: Season 2 — Западная Европа · BO3
result vs prediction
Winter Bearwin 2:1
series probability
44%56%
probability at match start · final 2:1
FromBloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Winter Bear

Omniknight
Omniknightoften banned
Flash · 5 games
80%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopter
Exotic Deer · 4 games
50%
Snapfire
Snapfire
Ekki · 4 games
50%
Weaver
Weaveroften banned
Ekki · 4 games
50%
Wraith King
Wraith Kingoften banned
Exotic Deer · 4 games
75%
Puck
Puckoften banned
ntakii · 3 games
33%
Tiny
Tiny
Exotic Deer · 3 games
33%
Tusk
Tusk
Ekki · 3 games
67%

FromB

No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Bane
Bane
540 picks · 363 bans
57%
Queen of Pain
Queen of Pain
470 picks · 569 bans
52%
Mars
Mars
425 picks · 602 bans
52%
Weaver
Weaver
423 picks · 698 bans
53%
Kunkka
Kunkka
354 picks · 534 bans
53%
Spirit Breaker
Spirit Breaker
340 picks · 572 bans
53%
Snapfire
Snapfire
317 picks · 158 bans
48%
Wraith King
Wraith King
277 picks · 364 bans
56%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)71% vs 71%
Hero pool strength54% Winter Bear
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total56% FromB
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct18:31
Winter Bear 44%FromB 56%
The model gave 56% on FromB — the game was taken by FromB in 35:14.
Game 2prediction correct
Winter Bear 44%FromB 56%
The model gave 56% on FromB — the game was taken by FromB.
Game 3prediction missed26:28
Winter Bear 44%FromB 56%
The model gave 56% on FromB — the game was taken by Winter Bear in 53:11.
Model check result
Model favoriteFromB · 56%
Series resultWinter Bear 2:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game2 of 3