Dota Pro Circuit 2021/2022: Season 2 — Западная Европа · BO3
result vs prediction
Winter Bearloss 0:2series probability
17%83%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Goonsquadwin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Winter Bear
Omniknightoften banned
Flash · 7 games
Gyrocopter
Exotic Deer · 6 games
Snapfire
Ekki · 5 games
Puckoften banned
ntakii · 4 games
Tusk
Ekki · 4 games
Weaveroften banned
Ekki · 4 games
Wraith Kingoften banned
Exotic Deer · 4 games
Tinyoften banned
Exotic Deer · 3 games
Goonsquad
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Bane
471 picks · 280 bans
Mars
406 picks · 544 bans
Weaver
347 picks · 456 bans
Queen of Pain
345 picks · 497 bans
Death Prophet
315 picks · 527 bans
Kunkka
283 picks · 517 bans
Ember Spirit
273 picks · 368 bans
Grimstroke
263 picks · 193 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 83%
Hero pool strength50% Goonsquad
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total83% Goonsquad
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct10:23
Winter Bear 17%Goonsquad 83%
The model gave 83% on Goonsquad — the game was taken by Goonsquad in 30:08.
Game 2prediction correct7:32
Winter Bear 17%Goonsquad 83%
The model gave 83% on Goonsquad — the game was taken by Goonsquad in 20:05.
Model check result
Model favoriteGoonsquad · 83%
Series resultGoonsquad 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2