Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 1. Восточная Европа. Закрытые отборочные · BO3
result vs prediction
Winter Bearloss 0:2series probability
44%56%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Hot Headed Gamingwin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Winter Bear
Monkey Kingoften banned
9Class · 2 games
Skywrath Mageoften banned
9Class · 2 games
Axe
TheBloodySky · 1 game
Dawnbreakeroften banned
TheBloodySky · 1 game
Death Prophetoften banned
TheBloodySky · 1 game
Razoroften banned
TheBloodySky · 1 game
Hot Headed Gaming
Leshracoften banned
Moonlight · 2 games
Lycanoften banned
MikSa` · 2 games
Batrideroften banned
Moonlight · 1 game
Enigmaoften banned
MikSa` · 1 game
Storm Spiritoften banned
Moonlight · 1 game
Visageoften banned
MikSa` · 1 game
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
366 picks · 344 bans
Tusk
324 picks · 299 bans
Marci
272 picks · 516 bans
Undying
254 picks · 465 bans
Pangolier
250 picks · 565 bans
Primal Beast
236 picks · 597 bans
Shadow Fiend
222 picks · 343 bans
Snapfire
220 picks · 120 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)60% vs 60%
Hero pool strength51% Hot Headed Gaming
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total56% Hot Headed Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct37:46
Winter Bear 45%Hot Headed Gaming 55%
The model gave 55% on Hot Headed Gaming — the game was taken by Hot Headed Gaming in 57:30.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
SnapfireTheBloodySky
Death ProphetMoonlight
Tiny9Class
LycanMikSa`
Game 2prediction correct16:41
Winter Bear 48%Hot Headed Gaming 52%
The model gave 52% on Hot Headed Gaming — the game was taken by Hot Headed Gaming in 39:30.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
RazorTheBloodySky
Death ProphetMoonlight
Tiny9Class
VisageMikSa`
Model check result
Model favoriteHot Headed Gaming · 56%
Series resultHot Headed Gaming 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2