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European Pro League Season 34 · BO3
result vs prediction
Winter Bearwin 2:0
series probability
30%70%
probability at match start · final 2:0
HULIGANIloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Winter Bear

Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonoften banned
Delight · 8 games
50%
Marci
Marcisignature
waveformn · 7 games
86%
Phoenix
Phoenixsignature
Delight · 7 games
86%
Razor
Razorsignature
fortniteMan · 7 games
86%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritsignature
Panda · 6 games
83%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopteroften banned
zuyzyan · 6 games
50%
Invoker
Invokersignature
Panda · 6 games
67%
Jakiro
Jakirooften banned
Delight · 6 games
50%

HULIGANI

Mars
Marsoften banned
Bb3px · 46 games
54%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunnersignature
Bb3px · 42 games
67%
Chen
Chensignature
RESPECT · 39 games
67%
Skywrath Mage
Skywrath Magesignature
slimeyao · 36 games
69%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonoften banned
slimeyao · 34 games
56%
Tusk
Tusk
slimeyao · 34 games
56%
Jakiro
Jakirooften banned
RESPECT · 33 games
45%
Pugna
Pugnasignature
slimeyao · 33 games
70%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
Jakiro
622 picks · 951 bans
50%
Tusk
Tusk
520 picks · 428 bans
47%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
465 picks · 627 bans
58%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demon
433 picks · 970 bans
53%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
423 picks · 548 bans
48%
Tiny
Tiny
409 picks · 461 bans
48%
Warlock
Warlock
409 picks · 252 bans
47%
Mars
Mars
394 picks · 536 bans
46%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)58% vs 63%
Hero pool strength52% Winter Bear
Head-to-head1 – 1
Model total70% HULIGANI
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed25:19
Winter Bear 41%HULIGANI 59%
The model gave 59% on HULIGANI — the game was taken by Winter Bear in 44:22.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Muerta
Muertazuyzyan
48% · 221 game59% · 76 games
Slarkv1olent-
Slark
Puck
PuckPanda
47% · 386 games52% · 340 games
BeastmasterMirage
Beastmaster
Bristleback
BristlebackfortniteMan
52% · 312 games51% · 141 game
UnderlordBb3px
Underlord
Marci
Marciwaveformn
49% · 215 games49% · 311 games
SnapfireRESPECT
Snapfire
Shadow Demon
Shadow DemonDelight
48% · 300 games46% · 566 games
Tusksayuw
Tusk
Game 2prediction missed35:37
Winter Bear 39%HULIGANI 61%
The model gave 61% on HULIGANI — the game was taken by Winter Bear in 37:14.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Troll Warlord
Troll Warlordzuyzyan
49% · 100 games58% · 103 games
RazorMirage
Razor
Shadow Fiend
Shadow FiendPanda
56% · 171 game50% · 339 games
Ursav1olent-
Ursa
Dark Seer
Dark SeerfortniteMan
46% · 167 games53% · 374 games
MarsBb3px
Mars
Tusk
Tuskwaveformn
43% · 485 games53% · 226 games
PhoenixRESPECT
Phoenix
Jakiro
JakiroDelight
49% · 386 games45% · 267 games
Dark Willowsayuw
Dark Willow
Model check result
Model favoriteHULIGANI · 70%
Series resultWinter Bear 2:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2