CCT Series 1 · BO3
result vs prediction
Winter Bearloss 0:1series probability
51%49%
probability at match start · final 0:1
Montewin 1:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Winter Bear
Vengeful Spirit
Stoic · 13 games
Rubick
Jeezy · 11 games
Lion
Jeezy · 9 games
Crystal Maiden
Stoic · 7 games
Phoenixoften banned
Stoic · 7 games
Tinyoften banned
Jeezy · 5 games
Clockwerkoften banned
Stoic · 4 games
Hoodwink
ArrOw · 4 games
Monte
Hoodwink
QBFY · 12 games
Crystal Maiden
EcNart · 11 games
Dark Willowoften banned
QBFY · 11 games
Gyrocopteroften banned
Crystallize · 11 games
Tinyoften banned
QBFY · 11 games
Batrideroften banned
QBFY · 10 games
Beastmasteroften banned
Infernal · 9 games
Linaoften banned
Moonlight · 9 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
403 picks · 610 bans
Gyrocopter
351 picks · 372 bans
Crystal Maiden
343 picks · 129 bans
Centaur Warrunner
334 picks · 445 bans
Dark Willow
319 picks · 353 bans
Clockwerk
311 picks · 414 bans
Rubick
311 picks · 160 bans
Dragon Knight
308 picks · 560 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)29% vs 28%
Hero pool strength51% Winter Bear
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total51% Winter Bear
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed
Winter Bear 51%Monte 49%
The model gave 51% on Winter Bear — the game was taken by Monte.
Model check result
Model favoriteWinter Bear · 51%
Series resultMonte 0:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 1