DreamLeague Season 26. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Winter Bearloss 0:2series probability
10%90%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Nigma Galaxywin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Winter Bear
Phoenixsignature
Delight · 6 games
Dark Willow
jAMES · 5 games
Nyx Assassinoften banned
Delight · 5 games
Shadow Demonoften banned
Delight · 4 games
Lion
Delight · 3 games
Gyrocopteroften banned
jAMES · 2 games
Rubick
Delight · 2 games
Bounty Hunteroften banned
Delight · 1 game
Nigma Galaxy
Phoenixoften banned
GH · 26 games
Batrideroften banned
OmaR · 23 games
Bristlebacksignature
No!ob · 20 games
Magnussignature
SumaiL · 20 games
Snipersignature
SumaiL · 19 games
Clockwerk
GH · 17 games
Lionsignature
OmaR · 17 games
Marsoften banned
No!ob · 17 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
535 picks · 735 bans
Muerta
433 picks · 318 bans
Phoenix
429 picks · 704 bans
Clockwerk
410 picks · 402 bans
Bristleback
385 picks · 882 bans
Phantom Assassin
384 picks · 678 bans
Magnus
382 picks · 1026 bans
Pangolier
369 picks · 510 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)46% vs 63%
Hero pool strength55% Nigma Galaxy
Head-to-head0 – 3
Model total90% Nigma Galaxy
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct7:39
Winter Bear 27%Nigma Galaxy 73%
The model gave 73% on Nigma Galaxy — the game was taken by Nigma Galaxy in 28:28.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
PhoenixDelight
BeastmasterSumaiL
47% · 53 games
Phantom AssassinGhost
54% · 68 games
Centaur WarrunnerNo!ob
54% · 136 games
MuertaOmaR
50% · 8 games
SilencerGH
Game 2prediction correct18:50
Winter Bear 25%Nigma Galaxy 75%
The model gave 75% on Nigma Galaxy — the game was taken by Nigma Galaxy in 42:06.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
MuertaDelight
InvokerSumaiL
57% · 57 games
Monkey KingGhost
51% · 35 games
MarsNo!ob
59% · 18 games
Ancient ApparitionGH
58% · 22 games
WindrangerOmaR
Model check result
Model favoriteNigma Galaxy · 90%
Series resultNigma Galaxy 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2