ESL One Birmingham 2024. Открытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Winter Bearwin 2:0series probability
69%31%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Riyadh Chefsloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Winter Bear
Vengeful Spirit
Stoic · 7 games
Faceless Voidoften banned
Lowskill · 4 games
Grimstrokeoften banned
Nagato · 4 games
Rubick
Jeezy · 4 games
Tiny
Jeezy · 4 games
Treant Protectoroften banned
Stoic · 4 games
Clockwerk
Stoic · 3 games
Phoenixoften banned
Jeezy · 3 games
Riyadh Chefs
Magnusoften banned
OwnedMe · 2 games
Axe
OwnedMe · 1 game
Bristlebackoften banned
OwnedMe · 1 game
Slardaroften banned
OwnedMe · 1 game
Tidehunteroften banned
OwnedMe · 1 game
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Centaur Warrunner
297 picks · 432 bans
Phoenix
272 picks · 406 bans
Grimstroke
260 picks · 441 bans
Tusk
227 picks · 206 bans
Nature's Prophet
225 picks · 631 bans
Lion
224 picks · 202 bans
Vengeful Spirit
221 picks · 114 bans
Pangolier
214 picks · 308 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)60% vs 45%
Hero pool strength52% Winter Bear
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total69% Winter Bear
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct
Winter Bear 69%Riyadh Chefs 31%
The model gave 69% on Winter Bear — the game was taken by Winter Bear.
Game 2prediction correct
Winter Bear 69%Riyadh Chefs 31%
The model gave 69% on Winter Bear — the game was taken by Winter Bear.
Model check result
Model favoriteWinter Bear · 69%
Series resultWinter Bear 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2