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European Pro League Season 34 · BO3
result vs prediction
Winter Bearwin 2:1
series probability
32%68%
probability at match start · final 2:1
strongboysloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Winter Bear

Invoker
Invokersignature
Panda · 6 games
67%
Marci
Marcisignature
waveformn · 6 games
100%
Puck
Puckoften banned
Panda · 6 games
33%
Razor
Razorsignature
fortniteMan · 6 games
83%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
Panda · 5 games
80%
Jakiro
Jakirooften banned
Delight · 5 games
60%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonoften banned
Delight · 5 games
60%
Warlock
Warlock
Delight · 5 games
20%

strongboys

Invoker
Invokersignature
Stojkov · 12 games
75%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopteroften banned
Lowskill · 11 games
55%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
Ponlo · 11 games
45%
Muerta
Muertasignature
Ponlo · 11 games
73%
Timbersaw
Timbersawoften banned
ChodΣX · 9 games
44%
Jakiro
Jakirooften banned
Tobi · 8 games
38%
Marci
Marcisignature
ChodΣX · 8 games
75%
Nyx Assassin
Nyx Assassin
Tobi · 8 games
50%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
Jakiro
611 picks · 935 bans
51%
Tusk
Tusk
517 picks · 418 bans
47%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
474 picks · 621 bans
57%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
427 picks · 573 bans
49%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demon
427 picks · 949 bans
52%
Warlock
Warlock
404 picks · 250 bans
47%
Tiny
Tiny
397 picks · 447 bans
47%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
396 picks · 658 bans
59%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)57% vs 64%
Hero pool strength52% Winter Bear
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total68% strongboys
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct42:52
Winter Bear 42%strongboys 58%
The model gave 58% on strongboys — the game was taken by strongboys in 55:39.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopterzuyzyan
50% · 239 games50% · 373 games
Windrangerbashka
Windranger
Queen of Pain
Queen of PainPanda
44% · 191 game50% · 270 games
Void SpiritStojkov
Void Spirit
Batrider
BatriderfortniteMan
49% · 227 games54% · 314 games
MarciChodΣX
Marci
Tusk
Tuskwaveformn
49% · 417 games51% · 314 games
MuertaPonlo
Muerta
Jakiro
JakiroDelight
54% · 415 games47% · 218 games
ClockwerkUndyne_
Clockwerk
Game 2prediction missed42:19
Winter Bear 41%strongboys 59%
The model gave 59% on strongboys — the game was taken by Winter Bear in 32:39.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Troll Warlord
Troll Warlordzuyzyan
50% · 130 games46% · 312 games
Gyrocopterbashka
Gyrocopter
Shadow Fiend
Shadow FiendPanda
55% · 172 games50% · 63 games
LinaStojkov
Lina
Tiny
Tinywaveformn
52% · 389 games48% · 224 games
MarciChodΣX
Marci
Batrider
BatriderfortniteMan
52% · 266 games48% · 474 games
TuskUndyne_
Tusk
Phoenix
PhoenixDelight
51% · 158 games48% · 42 games
GrimstrokePonlo
Grimstroke
Game 3prediction missed46:23
Winter Bear 39%strongboys 61%
The model gave 61% on strongboys — the game was taken by Winter Bear in 41:11.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Shadow Fiend
Shadow Fiendzuyzyan
56% · 197 games50% · 80 games
InvokerStojkov
Invoker
Huskar
HuskarPanda
52% · 60 games49% · 55 games
Kezbashka
Kez
Mars
MarsfortniteMan
49% · 291 game50% · 140 games
MarciChodΣX
Marci
Spirit Breaker
Spirit Breakerwaveformn
53% · 59 games49% · 352 games
TuskUndyne_
Tusk
Phoenix
PhoenixDelight
52% · 146 games43% · 126 games
Dark WillowPonlo
Dark Willow
Model check result
Model favoritestrongboys · 68%
Series resultWinter Bear 2:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3