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BetBoom Dacha Dubai 2024. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Winter Bearloss 0:2
series probability
7%93%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Team Falconswin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Winter Bear

Faceless Void
Faceless Voidoften banned
Lowskill · 4 games
75%
Grimstroke
Grimstrokeoften banned
Nagato · 3 games
100%
Ancient Apparition
Ancient Apparitionoften banned
Nagato · 2 games
50%
Muerta
Muertaoften banned
Lowskill · 2 games
50%
Treant Protector
Treant Protectoroften banned
Nagato · 2 games
0%
Bane
Bane
Nagato · 1 game
100%
Lich
Lich
Stoic · 1 game
100%
Lifestealer
Lifestealeroften banned
Lowskill · 1 game
0%

Team Falcons

Luna
Lunasignature
Skiter · 15 games
80%
Weaver
Weaversignature
Cr1t- · 12 games
83%
Lina
Linasignature
Malr1ne · 11 games
73%
Mars
Marssignature
ATF · 11 games
100%
Enchantress
Enchantressoften banned
Sneyking · 10 games
50%
Tusk
Tusksignature
Cr1t- · 10 games
80%
Chen
Chensignature
Sneyking · 9 games
89%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightsignature
Malr1ne · 9 games
67%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Grimstroke
Grimstroke
263 picks · 432 bans
50%
Phoenix
Phoenix
244 picks · 380 bans
50%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
243 picks · 334 bans
53%
Tusk
Tusk
215 picks · 204 bans
47%
Muerta
Muerta
210 picks · 298 bans
48%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
204 picks · 100 bans
53%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophet
197 picks · 492 bans
52%
Kunkka
Kunkka
180 picks · 506 bans
59%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)69% vs 71%
Hero pool strength58% Team Falcons
Head-to-head0 – 2
Model total93% Team Falcons
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct10:30
Winter Bear 21%Team Falcons 79%
The model gave 79% on Team Falcons — the game was taken by Team Falcons in 37:14.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Rubick
RubickJeezy
47% · 455 games52% · 41 game
LunaSkiter
Luna
Vengeful Spirit
Vengeful SpiritStoic
56% · 73 games42% · 34 games
RazorATF
Razor
55% · 216 games
PangolierMalr1ne
Pangolier
43% · 226 games
TinyCr1t-
Tiny
53% · 11 games
Winter WyvernSneyking
Winter Wyvern
Game 2prediction correct15:28
Winter Bear 18%Team Falcons 82%
The model gave 82% on Team Falcons — the game was taken by Team Falcons in 42:27.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Grimstroke
GrimstrokeJeezy
50% · 86 games39% · 40 games
MarsATF
Mars
Tusk
TuskStoic
49% · 149 games50% · 42 games
UrsaSkiter
Ursa
51% · 75 games
PuckMalr1ne
Puck
65% · 26 games
ChenSneyking
Chen
50% · 52 games
Skywrath MageCr1t-
Skywrath Mage
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Falcons · 93%
Series resultTeam Falcons 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2