European Pro League Season 30 · BO3
result vs prediction
Winter Bearwin 2:1series probability
51%49%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Team Lynxloss 1:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Winter Bear
Phoenix
Delight · 7 games
Clinkz
Delight · 3 games
Invokeroften banned
Jeezy · 2 games
Keeper of the Lightoften banned
Jeezy · 2 games
Muerta
Delight · 2 games
Naga Sirenoften banned
Stoic · 2 games
Nature's Prophetoften banned
Stoic · 2 games
Ringmaster
Jeezy · 2 games
Team Lynx
Marsoften banned
fortniteMan · 6 games
Tidehunteroften banned
StoneBank · 6 games
Ember Spiritoften banned
mellojul · 5 games
Morphlingoften banned
7jesu · 5 games
Nature's Prophetoften banned
7jesu · 5 games
Slardar
StoneBank · 5 games
Terrorbladeoften banned
7jesu · 5 games
Timbersawoften banned
fortniteMan · 5 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Shadow Shaman
298 picks · 192 bans
Puck
289 picks · 667 bans
Dark Willow
260 picks · 107 bans
Tusk
256 picks · 254 bans
Dawnbreaker
252 picks · 621 bans
Nature's Prophet
250 picks · 520 bans
Marci
244 picks · 532 bans
Batrider
240 picks · 676 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 32%
Hero pool strength52% Team Lynx
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total51% Winter Bear
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed14:37
Winter Bear 53%Team Lynx 47%
The model gave 53% on Winter Bear — the game was taken by Team Lynx in 38:37.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Shadow FiendPanda
Templar Assassin7jesu
48% · 29 games
Earthshakermellojul
50% · 6 games
SlardarfortniteMan
Game 2prediction correct28:19
Winter Bear 51%Team Lynx 49%
The model gave 51% on Winter Bear — the game was taken by Winter Bear in 34:12.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Sand KingPanda
Ursa7jesu
47% · 15 games
Leshracmellojul
45% · 34 games
DawnbreakerfortniteMan
Game 3prediction correct29:10
Winter Bear 51%Team Lynx 49%
The model gave 51% on Winter Bear — the game was taken by Winter Bear in 26:08.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Ember SpiritPanda
Sven7jesu
DisruptorOmaR
Pangoliermellojul
53% · 61 game
MarsfortniteMan
Model check result
Model favoriteWinter Bear · 51%
Series resultWinter Bear 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3