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DreamLeague Season 27. Открытые квалификации · BO1
result vs prediction
Winter Bearwin 1:0
series probability
53%47%
probability at match start · final 1:0
Team Lynxloss 0:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Winter Bear

Phoenix
Phoenix
Delight · 7 games
14%
Clinkz
Clinkz
Delight · 3 games
100%
Shadow Fiend
Shadow Fiendoften banned
Panda · 3 games
33%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
Panda · 2 games
50%
Invoker
Invokeroften banned
Jeezy · 2 games
50%
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the Lightoften banned
Jeezy · 2 games
50%
Muerta
Muerta
Delight · 2 games
0%
Naga Siren
Naga Sirenoften banned
Stoic · 2 games
100%

Team Lynx

Mars
Marsoften banned
fortniteMan · 7 games
43%
Slardar
Slardarsignature
StoneBank · 6 games
67%
Tidehunter
Tidehunteroften banned
StoneBank · 6 games
17%
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreakeroften banned
fortniteMan · 5 games
60%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
mellojul · 5 games
60%
Morphling
Morphlingoften banned
7jesu · 5 games
40%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetoften banned
7jesu · 5 games
60%
Terrorblade
Terrorbladeoften banned
7jesu · 5 games
40%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shaman
298 picks · 192 bans
49%
Puck
Puck
295 picks · 685 bans
51%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
260 picks · 110 bans
47%
Tusk
Tusk
258 picks · 258 bans
46%
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreaker
257 picks · 639 bans
48%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophet
251 picks · 531 bans
58%
Disruptor
Disruptor
247 picks · 212 bans
47%
Marci
Marci
245 picks · 563 bans
55%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 25%
Hero pool strength52% Team Lynx
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total53% Winter Bear
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct
Winter Bear 53%Team Lynx 47%
The model gave 53% on Winter Bear — the game was taken by Winter Bear.
Model check result
Model favoriteWinter Bear · 53%
Series resultWinter Bear 1:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game1 of 1