EPL Championship Season 1 · BO3
result vs prediction
Winter Bearloss 0:2series probability
20%80%
probability at match start · final 0:2
TPTeam Publicwin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Winter Bear
Invokeroften banned
Panda · 4 games
Dragon Knightoften banned
Panda · 3 games
Ember Spiritoften banned
Panda · 3 games
Puckoften banned
Panda · 3 games
Sand King
Panda · 3 games
Shadow Fiendoften banned
Panda · 3 games
Batrideroften banned
Kaori · 2 games
Jakirooften banned
Kaori · 2 games
Team Public
Hoodwink
mrls · 14 games
Dragon Knightoften banned
Adzantick · 13 games
Skywrath Magesignature
mrls · 10 games
Shadow Demonoften banned
Jeezy · 9 games
Ember Spiritsignature
Adzantick · 8 games
Timbersawoften banned
mangekyou · 8 games
Broodmotheroften banned
mangekyou · 7 games
Queen of Painoften banned
xn丶e · 7 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
532 picks · 782 bans
Tusk
498 picks · 345 bans
Dragon Knight
460 picks · 637 bans
Centaur Warrunner
447 picks · 558 bans
Shadow Demon
375 picks · 696 bans
Gyrocopter
356 picks · 566 bans
Mars
342 picks · 462 bans
Slardar
320 picks · 894 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 50%
Hero pool strength52% Team Public
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total80% Team Public
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct5:20
Winter Bear 34%Team Public 66%
The model gave 66% on Team Public — the game was taken by Team Public in 22:18.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Lifestealer4IVAN
Death ProphetAntares
BeastmasterPanda
WeaverYuragi
Ringmasterwaveformn
Dragon Knightxn丶e
WarlockDelight
Jakiromrls
48% · 403 games
Tusksayuw
Game 2prediction correct24:39
Winter Bear 35%Team Public 65%
The model gave 65% on Team Public — the game was taken by Team Public in 36:18.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Huskar4IVAN
Linaxn丶e
Ember SpiritPanda
Dragon KnightYuragi
Ringmasterwaveformn
DoomAntares
WarlockDelight
Spirit Breakersayuw
48% · 534 games
Jakiromrls
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Public · 80%
Series resultTeam Public 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2