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European Pro League Season 34 · BO3
result vs prediction
Winter Bearwin 2:1
series probability
57%43%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Valinorloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Winter Bear

Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
Panda · 5 games
80%
Invoker
Invokeroften banned
Panda · 5 games
60%
Warlock
Warlock
Delight · 5 games
20%
Puck
Puckoften banned
Panda · 4 games
0%
Alchemist
Alchemist
4IVAN · 3 games
100%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
Panda · 3 games
67%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
Panda · 3 games
0%
Huskar
Huskaroften banned
Panda · 3 games
33%

Valinor

Jakiro
Jakirooften banned
Stoic · 7 games
57%
Tusk
Tusk
Stoic · 7 games
43%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunnersignature
Wuiter · 6 games
67%
Ringmaster
Ringmaster
Jeezy · 6 games
50%
Timbersaw
Timbersawsignature
G.T.I · 6 games
67%
Tiny
Tinyoften banned
G.T.I · 6 games
50%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
G.T.I · 5 games
40%
Mars
Marsoften banned
Wuiter · 5 games
20%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
Jakiro
608 picks · 938 bans
51%
Tusk
Tusk
523 picks · 426 bans
47%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
475 picks · 629 bans
56%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
454 picks · 596 bans
48%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demon
437 picks · 945 bans
52%
Warlock
Warlock
404 picks · 246 bans
47%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
397 picks · 661 bans
59%
Tiny
Tiny
392 picks · 436 bans
48%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)53% vs 47%
Hero pool strength51% Winter Bear
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total57% Winter Bear
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed38:38
Winter Bear 55%Valinor 45%
The model gave 55% on Winter Bear — the game was taken by Valinor in 51:58.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Razor
RazorPanda
59% · 97 games50% · 66 games
Faceless VoidCoblackk
Faceless Void
Kez
Kezzuyzyan
61% · 79 games45% · 302 games
TinyG.T.I
Tiny
Mars
MarsfortniteMan
41% · 374 games54% · 312 games
Centaur WarrunnerWuiter
Centaur Warrunner
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonwaveformn
52% · 361 game57% · 38 games
RubickJeezy
Rubick
Phoenix
PhoenixDelight
41% · 203 games47% · 396 games
JakiroStoic
Jakiro
Game 2prediction correct40:14
Winter Bear 53%Valinor 47%
The model gave 53% on Winter Bear — the game was taken by Winter Bear in 36:13.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Kez
Kezzuyzyan
49% · 37 games50% · 368 games
Ember SpiritG.T.I
Ember Spirit
Puck
PuckPanda
49% · 279 games53% · 252 games
MuertaCoblackk
Muerta
Razor
RazorfortniteMan
56% · 65 games42% · 110 games
KunkkaWuiter
Kunkka
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonwaveformn
59% · 154 games46% · 183 games
PhoenixJeezy
Phoenix
Jakiro
JakiroDelight
48% · 406 games46% · 28 games
OmniknightStoic
Omniknight
Game 3prediction correct40:17
Winter Bear 57%Valinor 43%
The model gave 57% on Winter Bear — the game was taken by Winter Bear in 24:53.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Shadow Fiend
Shadow Fiendzuyzyan
53% · 191 game45% · 38 games
KezCoblackk
Kez
Invoker
InvokerPanda
56% · 124 games46% · 133 games
Void SpiritG.T.I
Void Spirit
Batrider
BatriderfortniteMan
52% · 279 games43% · 49 games
RazorWuiter
Razor
Marci
Marciwaveformn
55% · 206 games45% · 291 game
WarlockStoic
Warlock
Treant Protector
Treant ProtectorDelight
67% · 66 games41% · 355 games
TuskJeezy
Tusk
Model check result
Model favoriteWinter Bear · 57%
Series resultWinter Bear 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3