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EPL Championship Season 1 · BO3
result vs prediction
Winter Bearloss 0:2
series probability
28%72%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Yellow Submarinewin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Winter Bear

Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
Panda · 4 games
75%
Invoker
Invokeroften banned
Panda · 4 games
50%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
Panda · 3 games
0%
Puck
Puckoften banned
Panda · 3 games
0%
Sand King
Sand King
Panda · 3 games
67%
Shadow Fiend
Shadow Fiendoften banned
Panda · 3 games
33%
Alchemist
Alchemist
4IVAN · 2 games
100%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
Kaori · 2 games
100%

Yellow Submarine

Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
Mirele · 27 games
59%
Void Spirit
Void Spirit
Mirele · 26 games
50%
Snapfire
Snapfire
mrls · 25 games
48%
Disruptor
Disruptor
Xakoda · 24 games
33%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
bottega · 22 games
41%
Muerta
Muertasignature
bottega · 22 games
64%
Tusk
Tusk
prblms · 22 games
41%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
sayuw · 21 game
43%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
Jakiro
544 picks · 882 bans
50%
Tusk
Tusk
516 picks · 390 bans
47%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
480 picks · 642 bans
49%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
466 picks · 596 bans
57%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demon
399 picks · 840 bans
53%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
366 picks · 588 bans
59%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopter
351 picks · 573 bans
50%
Mars
Mars
349 picks · 489 bans
47%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 55%
Hero pool strength51% Winter Bear
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total72% Yellow Submarine
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct13:41
Winter Bear 37%Yellow Submarine 63%
The model gave 63% on Yellow Submarine — the game was taken by Yellow Submarine in 35:51.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Pudge
Pudge4IVAN
60% · 32 games43% · 124 games
UnderlordInfernal
Underlord
Timbersaw
TimbersawfortniteMan
52% · 107 games46% · 69 games
SniperMirele
Sniper
Huskar
HuskarPanda
54% · 50 games48% · 344 games
Storm Spiritbottega
Storm Spirit
Tiny
Tinywaveformn
47% · 235 games55% · 30 games
Earth Spiritprblms
Earth Spirit
Warlock
WarlockDelight
46% · 193 games63% · 50 games
Treant ProtectorHtrd
Treant Protector
Game 2prediction correct4:37
Winter Bear 34%Yellow Submarine 66%
The model gave 66% on Yellow Submarine — the game was taken by Yellow Submarine in 31:39.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Weaver
Weaver4IVAN
39% · 41 game44% · 253 games
Windrangerbottega
Windranger
Puck
PuckPanda
53% · 145 games50% · 339 games
Storm SpiritMirele
Storm Spirit
Slardar
SlardarfortniteMan
46% · 117 games47% · 91 game
BrewmasterInfernal
Brewmaster
Ringmaster
Ringmasterwaveformn
52% · 226 games67% · 39 games
Treant ProtectorHtrd
Treant Protector
Warlock
WarlockDelight
53% · 196 games57% · 3 games
Largoprblms
Largo
Model check result
Model favoriteYellow Submarine · 72%
Series resultYellow Submarine 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2