PGL Wallachia Season 3. Открытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Winter Bearloss 0:2series probability
35%65%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Zero Tenacitywin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Winter Bear
Clockwerkoften banned
jAMES · 1 game
Dark Willow
jAMES · 1 game
Gyrocopteroften banned
jAMES · 1 game
Tuskoften banned
jAMES · 1 game
Zero Tenacity
Gyrocoptersignature
DaaD- · 19 games
Dark Willow
jAMES · 17 games
Clockwerkoften banned
LeBronDota · 15 games
Lich
LeBronDota · 14 games
Dawnbreakeroften banned
MikSa` · 13 games
Terrorbladesignature
Nefrit · 13 games
Lion
Pablo · 12 games
Ogre Magi
LeBronDota · 12 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Clockwerk
403 picks · 508 bans
Muerta
393 picks · 317 bans
Tusk
363 picks · 380 bans
Pangolier
348 picks · 565 bans
Lion
339 picks · 163 bans
Batrider
333 picks · 410 bans
Beastmaster
329 picks · 755 bans
Gyrocopter
309 picks · 449 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 58%
Hero pool strength58% Zero Tenacity
Head-to-head0 – 1
Model total65% Zero Tenacity
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct6:39
Winter Bear 35%Zero Tenacity 65%
The model gave 65% on Zero Tenacity — the game was taken by Zero Tenacity in 26:16.
Game 2prediction correct0:0
Winter Bear 35%Zero Tenacity 65%
The model gave 65% on Zero Tenacity — the game was taken by Zero Tenacity in 51:22.
Model check result
Model favoriteZero Tenacity · 65%
Series resultZero Tenacity 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2