DreamLeague Season 26. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Winter Bearwin 2:0series probability
56%44%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Zone Academyloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Winter Bear
Phoenixsignature
Delight · 7 games
Dark Willow
jAMES · 5 games
Nyx Assassinoften banned
Delight · 5 games
Shadow Demonoften banned
Delight · 4 games
Lion
Delight · 3 games
Gyrocopteroften banned
jAMES · 2 games
Hoodwink
Delight · 2 games
Rubick
Delight · 2 games
Zone Academy
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
544 picks · 766 bans
Muerta
442 picks · 328 bans
Phoenix
435 picks · 709 bans
Clockwerk
413 picks · 405 bans
Phantom Assassin
402 picks · 707 bans
Bristleback
394 picks · 894 bans
Magnus
390 picks · 1049 bans
Pangolier
378 picks · 520 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)46% vs 63%
Hero pool strength50% Winter Bear
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total56% Winter Bear
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct39:12
Winter Bear 56%Zone Academy 44%
The model gave 56% on Winter Bear — the game was taken by Winter Bear in 22:25.
Game 2prediction correct29:9
Winter Bear 56%Zone Academy 44%
The model gave 56% on Winter Bear — the game was taken by Winter Bear in 21:36.
Model check result
Model favoriteWinter Bear · 56%
Series resultWinter Bear 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2