Dota 2 Champions League 2021 Season 2. Открытая квалификация · BO1
result vs predictionWWITCHwin 1:0
series probability
46%54%
probability at match start · final 1:0
AAzimutloss 0:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
WITCH
No games played over 6 months.
Azimut
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
LastHero- · 1 game
Mirana
so bad · 1 game
Phantom Lanceroften banned
pio65 · 1 game
Phoenix
HappyDyurara · 1 game
Storm Spiritoften banned
Yellow Flash · 1 game
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Lion
463 picks · 185 bans
Snapfire
365 picks · 206 bans
Mars
352 picks · 562 bans
Puck
336 picks · 828 bans
Ancient Apparition
316 picks · 469 bans
Nyx Assassin
308 picks · 601 bans
Tiny
306 picks · 240 bans
Grimstroke
291 picks · 272 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 33%
Hero pool strength56% WITCH
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total54% Azimut
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Model check result
Model favoriteAzimut · 54%
Series resultWITCH 1:0
Series predictionmissed