Dota Pro Circuit 2021/2022: Season 3 — Южная Америка · BO3
result vs prediction
Wolf Teamloss 1:2series probability
25%75%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Infamouswin 2:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Wolf Team
No games played over 6 months.
Infamous
Banesignature
Prada · 8 games
Monkey Kingsignature
PiPi · 8 games
Ember Spiritoften banned
PiPi · 5 games
Marsoften banned
Mariano · 5 games
Queen of Painoften banned
PiPi · 5 games
Tusk
Pamplona · 5 games
Dragon Knightoften banned
PiPi · 4 games
Grimstroke
Genek · 4 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
508 picks · 437 bans
Mars
487 picks · 692 bans
Bane
453 picks · 291 bans
Dragon Knight
440 picks · 531 bans
Storm Spirit
383 picks · 623 bans
Sand King
381 picks · 541 bans
Pangolier
369 picks · 614 bans
Grimstroke
355 picks · 315 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)67% vs 52%
Hero pool strength55% Infamous
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total75% Infamous
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct37:35
Wolf Team 25%Infamous 75%
The model gave 75% on Infamous — the game was taken by Infamous in 49:00.
Game 2prediction correct25:44
Wolf Team 25%Infamous 75%
The model gave 75% on Infamous — the game was taken by Infamous in 30:51.
Game 3prediction correct46:27
Wolf Team 25%Infamous 75%
The model gave 75% on Infamous — the game was taken by Infamous in 41:48.
Model check result
Model favoriteInfamous · 75%
Series resultInfamous 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game3 of 3