Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 3. ЮВА. Открытые отборочные · BO3
result vs prediction
WOLFwin 1:0series probability
54%46%
probability at match start · final 1:0
Team Kickedloss 0:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
WOLF
No games played over 6 months.
Team Kicked
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
770 picks · 602 bans
Disruptor
548 picks · 450 bans
Tiny
436 picks · 381 bans
Beastmaster
417 picks · 976 bans
Nature's Prophet
401 picks · 677 bans
Undying
399 picks · 594 bans
Ember Spirit
392 picks · 919 bans
Mirana
389 picks · 210 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)67% vs 67%
Hero pool strength50% WOLF
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total54% WOLF
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct
WOLF 54%Team Kicked 46%
The model gave 54% on WOLF — the game was taken by WOLF.
Model check result
Model favoriteWOLF · 54%
Series resultWOLF 1:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game1 of 1