ESL One Raleigh 2025. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Wolf Warriorsloss 0:2series probability
52%48%
probability at match start · final 0:2
The Covenantwin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Wolf Warriors
No games played over 6 months.
The Covenant
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Muerta
485 picks · 409 bans
Clockwerk
451 picks · 578 bans
Batrider
422 picks · 524 bans
Lion
414 picks · 226 bans
Gyrocopter
412 picks · 694 bans
Phoenix
404 picks · 459 bans
Pangolier
374 picks · 594 bans
Beastmaster
357 picks · 932 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)40% vs 44%
Hero pool strength50% Wolf Warriors
Head-to-head0 – 1
Model total52% Wolf Warriors
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed4:27
Wolf Warriors 52%The Covenant 48%
The model gave 52% on Wolf Warriors — the game was taken by The Covenant in 20:12.
Game 2prediction missed28:38
Wolf Warriors 52%The Covenant 48%
The model gave 52% on Wolf Warriors — the game was taken by The Covenant in 40:20.
Model check result
Model favoriteWolf Warriors · 52%
Series resultThe Covenant 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2