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European Pro League Season 26 · BO3
result vs prediction
WW Teamloss 1:2
series probability
58%42%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Nemiga Gamingwin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

WW Team

Ancient Apparition
Ancient Apparitionoften banned
asdekor_r · 2 games
100%
Kunkka
Kunkka
ssnovv1 · 2 games
50%
Brewmaster
Brewmasteroften banned
VladikTheHtiviy · 1 game
0%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
Mirele · 1 game
100%
Jakiro
Jakiro
Wein · 1 game
100%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingoften banned
Mirele · 1 game
100%
Morphling
Morphlingoften banned
ssnovv1 · 1 game
100%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetoften banned
ssnovv1 · 1 game
0%

Nemiga Gaming

Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Miyaoo · 9 games
33%
Sand King
Sand King
спортик · 8 games
0%
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreakeroften banned
Miyaoo · 7 games
29%
Lion
Lion
Shishak · 7 games
14%
Phoenix
Phoenixoften banned
monodrama · 7 games
14%
Tiny
Tinyoften banned
спортик · 7 games
14%
Earth Spirit
Earth Spiritoften banned
ряф^^ · 6 games
33%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
Shishak · 6 games
33%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
Tiny
454 picks · 675 bans
50%
Jakiro
Jakiro
425 picks · 416 bans
52%
Phantom Assassin
Phantom Assassin
352 picks · 726 bans
52%
Bristleback
Bristleback
332 picks · 634 bans
55%
Muerta
Muerta
314 picks · 187 bans
53%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
313 picks · 521 bans
50%
Beastmaster
Beastmaster
305 picks · 602 bans
52%
Warlock
Warlock
295 picks · 272 bans
47%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 25%
Hero pool strength66% WW Team
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total58% WW Team
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct31:15
WW Team 56%Nemiga Gaming 44%
The model gave 56% on WW Team — the game was taken by WW Team in 41:18.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopterssnovv1
51% · 215 games52% · 118 games
MedusaCovisnine
Medusa
Bristleback
BristlebackVladikTheHtiviy
50% · 273 games55% · 235 games
Sand Kingспортик
Sand King
Jakiro
JakiroWein
44% · 260 games51% · 88 games
Slarkbashka
Slark
Elder Titan
Elder Titanasdekor_r
52% · 112 games46% · 262 games
TuskShishak
Tusk
49% · 157 games
Ringmastermonodrama
Ringmaster
Game 2prediction missed25:38
WW Team 56%Nemiga Gaming 44%
The model gave 56% on WW Team — the game was taken by Nemiga Gaming in 46:19.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Medusa
Medusassnovv1
55% · 125 games56% · 75 games
Lifestealerbashka
Lifestealer
Sand King
Sand KingVladikTheHtiviy
50% · 184 games45% · 324 games
Beastmasterспортик
Beastmaster
Jakiro
Jakiroasdekor_r
53% · 307 games50% · 165 games
Centaur WarrunnerCovisnine
Centaur Warrunner
Tusk
TuskWein
46% · 246 games51% · 167 games
RingmasterShishak
Ringmaster
44% · 131 game
Warlockmonodrama
Warlock
Game 3prediction missed24:40
WW Team 55%Nemiga Gaming 45%
The model gave 55% on WW Team — the game was taken by Nemiga Gaming in 40:52.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Phantom Assassin
Phantom Assassinssnovv1
42% · 128 games54% · 61 game
Nature's Prophetспортик
Nature's Prophet
Primal Beast
Primal BeastVladikTheHtiviy
50% · 101 game54% · 23 games
Faceless Voidbashka
Faceless Void
Slark
SlarkWein
54% · 43 games50% · 62 games
Centaur WarrunnerCovisnine
Centaur Warrunner
Silencer
Silencerasdekor_r
44% · 106 games62% · 49 games
Tinkermonodrama
Tinker
48% · 183 games
JakiroShishak
Jakiro
Model check result
Model favoriteWW Team · 58%
Series resultNemiga Gaming 1:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3