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Dota Pro Circuit 2021/2022: Season 3 — Восточная Европа · BO1
result vs prediction
X3win 1:0
series probability
79%21%
probability at match start · final 1:0
B8 Esportsloss 0:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

X3

Bane
Bane
Kidaro · 24 games
46%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
Mastery · 11 games
55%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
velheor · 10 games
30%
Pugna
Pugnaoften banned
antoha · 10 games
40%
Invoker
Invokersignature
NattyNarwhal · 8 games
63%
Outworld Destroyer
Outworld Destroyeroften banned
NattyNarwhal · 8 games
38%
Phantom Lancer
Phantom Lanceroften banned
DarkLord^ · 8 games
38%
Puck
Puckoften banned
NattyNarwhal · 8 games
38%

B8 Esports

Snapfire
Snapfire
Alexxo · 20 games
30%
Bane
Bane
Sammyboy · 19 games
42%
Puck
Puckoften banned
Dendi · 12 games
25%
Kunkka
Kunkkaoften banned
v1olent- · 11 games
36%
Ogre Magi
Ogre Magi
Sammyboy · 11 games
45%
Mirana
Mirana
Alexxo · 10 games
30%
Timbersaw
Timbersawsignature
Davai · 10 games
80%
Tiny
Tinyoften banned
YamSun · 10 games
30%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Mars
Mars
469 picks · 653 bans
48%
Tiny
Tiny
458 picks · 488 bans
50%
Bane
Bane
451 picks · 275 bans
56%
Sand King
Sand King
426 picks · 573 bans
53%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
374 picks · 434 bans
52%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spirit
371 picks · 622 bans
55%
Pangolier
Pangolier
356 picks · 552 bans
53%
Death Prophet
Death Prophet
341 picks · 805 bans
54%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)55% vs 25%
Hero pool strength53% X3
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total79% X3
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct12:35
X3 79%B8 Esports 21%
The model gave 79% on X3 — the game was taken by X3 in 33:11.
Model check result
Model favoriteX3 · 79%
Series resultX3 1:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game1 of 1