Winline Dota 2 Champions League Season 10 · BO3
result vs prediction
X3loss 0:2series probability
38%62%
probability at match start · final 0:2
CHILLAXwin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
X3
Bane
Kidaro · 20 games
Dragon Knightsignature
Mastery · 10 games
Hoodwink
velheor · 8 games
Outworld Destroyeroften banned
NattyNarwhal · 8 games
Enchantressoften banned
Kidaro · 7 games
Linaoften banned
NattyNarwhal · 7 games
Phantom Lanceroften banned
DarkLord^ · 7 games
Puckoften banned
NattyNarwhal · 7 games
CHILLAX
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Bane
459 picks · 283 bans
Mars
448 picks · 607 bans
Tiny
409 picks · 476 bans
Sand King
369 picks · 491 bans
Death Prophet
362 picks · 779 bans
Ember Spirit
342 picks · 516 bans
Storm Spirit
320 picks · 492 bans
Pangolier
317 picks · 463 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)47% vs 55%
Hero pool strength51% CHILLAX
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total62% CHILLAX
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct25:34
X3 38%CHILLAX 62%
The model gave 62% on CHILLAX — the game was taken by CHILLAX in 41:13.
Game 2prediction correct17:29
X3 38%CHILLAX 62%
The model gave 62% on CHILLAX — the game was taken by CHILLAX in 37:36.
Model check result
Model favoriteCHILLAX · 62%
Series resultCHILLAX 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2