ESL One Summer 2021. Открытые отборочные · BO1
result vs prediction
X3loss 0:1series probability
46%54%
probability at match start · final 0:1
EXTREMUMwin 1:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
X3
No games played over 6 months.
EXTREMUM
Batrideroften banned
mellojul · 18 games
Death Prophetsignature
G · 18 games
Void Spiritoften banned
mellojul · 17 games
Marsoften banned
Shachlo · 16 games
Enchantressoften banned
G · 14 games
Puckoften banned
mellojul · 13 games
Wraith Kingoften banned
Nefrit · 13 games
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
Shachlo · 12 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Puck
380 picks · 978 bans
Lion
373 picks · 198 bans
Mars
364 picks · 586 bans
Grimstroke
344 picks · 362 bans
Snapfire
293 picks · 171 bans
Tusk
290 picks · 223 bans
Death Prophet
287 picks · 637 bans
Void Spirit
277 picks · 473 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)67% vs 34%
Hero pool strength52% X3
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total54% EXTREMUM
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Model check result
Model favoriteEXTREMUM · 54%
Series resultEXTREMUM 0:1
Series predictioncorrect