X3 vs EZ KATKA — prediction WDCLS 2 13 · Dota 2

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Winline Dota 2 Champions League Season 13 · BO3

result vs prediction

X3win 2:0

series probability

77%23%

probability at match start · final 2:0

EZ KATKAloss 0:2

The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.

Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months

Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

X3

Bane

antoha · 22 games

45%

Puckoften banned

NattyNarwhal · 16 games

50%

Keeper of the Lightsignature

NattyNarwhal · 12 games

67%

Pugnaoften banned

smN · 12 games

33%

Treant Protectorsignature

smN · 12 games

67%

Beastmastersignature

Shergarat · 10 games

60%

Dragon Knightsignature

Mastery · 10 games

60%

Tiny

NattyNarwhal · 10 games

30%

EZ KATKA

No games played over 6 months.

Patch meta · 3 months

The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.

Tiny

574 picks · 464 bans

51%

Mars

431 picks · 667 bans

46%

Dragon Knight

406 picks · 525 bans

50%

Bane

386 picks · 262 bans

57%

Puck

385 picks · 853 bans

55%

Ember Spirit

336 picks · 635 bans

47%

Pangolier

332 picks · 556 bans

51%

Snapfire

332 picks · 162 bans

48%

Prediction components

Form (series winrate)55% vs 50%

Hero pool strength51% X3

Head-to-head0 – 0

Model total77% X3

Prediction by game vs result

Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.

Game 1prediction correct41:17

X3 65%EZ KATKA 35%

The model gave 65% on X3 — the game was taken by X3 in 25:32.

Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo