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Лига Ставок Dota 2 Champions League Season 17 · BO3
result vs prediction
X3loss 1:2
series probability
52%48%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Hydrawin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

X3

Marci
Marcioften banned
velheor · 21 game
52%
Tiny
Tinysignature
velheor · 20 games
70%
Enigma
Enigmaoften banned
Shergarat · 19 games
58%
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreakersignature
Shergarat · 17 games
71%
Zeus
Zeussignature
NattyNarwhal · 17 games
65%
Jakiro
Jakiro
dark · 16 games
56%
Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
NattyNarwhal · 16 games
69%
Beastmaster
Beastmastersignature
Shergarat · 15 games
60%

Hydra

Tusk
Tusksignature
Lefitan · 11 games
64%
Zeus
Zeusoften banned
Askold · 11 games
45%
Winter Wyvern
Winter Wyvernoften banned
kickeed · 10 games
40%
Warlock
Warlocksignature
kickeed · 8 games
63%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
Cloud · 7 games
43%
Disruptor
Disruptorsignature
HappyDyurara · 6 games
67%
Void Spirit
Void Spiritoften banned
Askold · 6 games
33%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
Worick · 5 games
40%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Marci
Marci
360 picks · 579 bans
54%
Tiny
Tiny
338 picks · 234 bans
48%
Undying
Undying
293 picks · 525 bans
54%
Tusk
Tusk
259 picks · 160 bans
56%
Pangolier
Pangolier
252 picks · 399 bans
54%
Primal Beast
Primal Beast
247 picks · 489 bans
55%
Shadow Fiend
Shadow Fiend
219 picks · 291 bans
52%
Enigma
Enigma
204 picks · 691 bans
58%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)68% vs 70%
Hero pool strength57% X3
Head-to-head2 – 5
Model total52% X3
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct26:14
X3 52%Hydra 48%
The model gave 52% on X3 — the game was taken by X3 in 33:19.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Lifestealer
Lifestealernesfeer
55% · 116 games62% · 81 game
LycanCloud
Lycan
Puck
PuckNattyNarwhal
56% · 309 games44% · 159 games
WeaverDinozavrik
Weaver
Beastmaster
BeastmasterShergarat
54% · 280 games38% · 103 games
InvokerWorick
Invoker
Earthshaker
Earthshakervelheor
50% · 105 games51% · 343 games
TinyLefitan
Tiny
Lich
Lichdark
43% · 47 games45% · 171 game
ClockwerkHappyDyurara
Clockwerk
Game 2prediction missed38:47
X3 53%Hydra 47%
The model gave 53% on X3 — the game was taken by Hydra in 56:08.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Beastmaster
BeastmasterShergarat
58% · 173 games55% · 105 games
Primal BeastCloud
Primal Beast
Slark
Slarknesfeer
58% · 59 games42% · 58 games
SniperDinozavrik
Sniper
Pangolier
PangolierNattyNarwhal
51% · 252 games41% · 264 games
Ember SpiritWorick
Ember Spirit
Earthshaker
Earthshakervelheor
51% · 74 games42% · 147 games
RubickLefitan
Rubick
Disruptor
Disruptordark
53% · 132 games47% · 116 games
Treant ProtectorHappyDyurara
Treant Protector
Game 3prediction missed23:42
X3 51%Hydra 49%
The model gave 51% on X3 — the game was taken by Hydra in 44:31.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Terrorblade
Terrorbladenesfeer
59% · 82 games41% · 93 games
UrsaDinozavrik
Ursa
Tiny
TinyNattyNarwhal
50% · 274 games57% · 76 games
LycanCloud
Lycan
Enigma
EnigmaShergarat
60% · 117 games42% · 151 game
ZeusWorick
Zeus
Lich
Lichdark
40% · 38 games45% · 101 game
SilencerLefitan
Silencer
Riki
Rikivelheor
47% · 16 games50% · 106 games
Crystal MaidenHappyDyurara
Crystal Maiden
Model check result
Model favoriteX3 · 52%
Series resultHydra 1:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3