Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 1. Восточная Европа. Второй дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
X3loss 0:2series probability
36%64%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Hydrawin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
X3
Tiny
velheor · 25 games
Marcioften banned
velheor · 21 game
Pangolieroften banned
NattyNarwhal · 21 game
Enigmaoften banned
Shergarat · 19 games
Hoodwink
alone · 18 games
Beastmasteroften banned
Shergarat · 16 games
Tusk
NattyNarwhal · 16 games
Linaoften banned
NattyNarwhal · 15 games
Hydra
Tusksignature
Lefitan · 22 games
Beastmastersignature
Cloud · 12 games
Disruptorsignature
HappyDyurara · 12 games
Batridersignature
Worick · 9 games
Silencersignature
HappyDyurara · 9 games
Lycansignature
Cloud · 8 games
Invokersignature
Worick · 7 games
Keeper of the Lightsignature
Lefitan · 7 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tusk
457 picks · 450 bans
Rubick
452 picks · 303 bans
Tiny
444 picks · 399 bans
Mirana
326 picks · 327 bans
Treant Protector
305 picks · 360 bans
Snapfire
275 picks · 143 bans
Ember Spirit
252 picks · 624 bans
Crystal Maiden
236 picks · 162 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)57% vs 77%
Hero pool strength62% Hydra
Head-to-head2 – 5
Model total64% Hydra
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct17:31
X3 40%Hydra 60%
The model gave 60% on Hydra — the game was taken by Hydra in 32:20.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Nature's Prophetnesfeer
SniperKami
LycanShergarat
Night StalkerCloud
PuckNattyNarwhal
BatriderWorick
Clockwerkdark
TuskLefitan
Hoodwinkalone
Treant ProtectorHappyDyurara
Game 2prediction correct9:19
X3 41%Hydra 59%
The model gave 59% on Hydra — the game was taken by Hydra in 27:18.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Morphlingnesfeer
SlarkKami
TinyNattyNarwhal
LycanCloud
BroodmotherShergarat
SnapfireWorick
Crystal Maidendark
IoLefitan
Hoodwinkalone
Treant ProtectorHappyDyurara
Model check result
Model favoriteHydra · 64%
Series resultHydra 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2