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1x Series · BO3
result vs prediction
X3win 2:1
series probability
53%47%
probability at match start · final 2:1
No Bounty Hunterloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

X3

Puck
Puckoften banned
NattyNarwhal · 23 games
52%
Bane
Bane
antoha · 20 games
50%
Tiny
Tiny
velheor · 15 games
47%
Enigma
Enigmaoften banned
Shergarat · 14 games
43%
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the Lightsignature
NattyNarwhal · 14 games
64%
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreakersignature
velheor · 13 games
85%
Zeus
Zeussignature
velheor · 13 games
62%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
Shergarat · 12 games
50%

No Bounty Hunter

Dazzle
Dazzle
Flash · 5 games
40%
Doom
Doomoften banned
kAAN · 3 games
67%
Nyx Assassin
Nyx Assassinoften banned
Flash · 3 games
67%
Puck
Puckoften banned
Adzantick · 3 games
33%
Viper
Viperoften banned
Shad · 3 games
33%
Chaos Knight
Chaos Knightoften banned
Shad · 2 games
50%
Lycan
Lycanoften banned
kAAN · 2 games
100%
Tidehunter
Tidehunter
kAAN · 2 games
100%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
Tiny
738 picks · 568 bans
53%
Puck
Puck
528 picks · 1051 bans
55%
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreaker
470 picks · 622 bans
45%
Marci
Marci
433 picks · 775 bans
52%
Winter Wyvern
Winter Wyvern
371 picks · 405 bans
55%
Snapfire
Snapfire
350 picks · 180 bans
49%
Zeus
Zeus
326 picks · 378 bans
46%
Razor
Razor
324 picks · 615 bans
51%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)49% vs 50%
Hero pool strength50% No Bounty Hunter
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total53% X3
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct59:45
X3 52%No Bounty Hunter 48%
The model gave 52% on X3 — the game was taken by X3 in 1:04:48.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Bristleback
Bristlebacknesfeer
50% · 48 games41% · 33 games
SniperShad
Sniper
Hoodwink
HoodwinkNattyNarwhal
49% · 161 game55% · 135 games
TimbersawAdzantick
Timbersaw
Venomancer
VenomancerShergarat
37% · 34 games52% · 303 games
MarskAAN
Mars
Tiny
Tinyvelheor
56% · 338 games50% · 179 games
Winter WyvernFlash
Winter Wyvern
Dazzle
Dazzle633
47% · 69 games
Game 2prediction missed23:38
X3 52%No Bounty Hunter 48%
The model gave 52% on X3 — the game was taken by No Bounty Hunter in 33:12.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Enigma
EnigmaShergarat
61% · 59 games44% · 213 games
Ember SpiritAdzantick
Ember Spirit
Bristleback
Bristlebacknesfeer
49% · 53 games55% · 64 games
LycankAAN
Lycan
Queen of Pain
Queen of PainNattyNarwhal
52% · 147 games45% · 88 games
ViperShad
Viper
Clockwerk
Clockwerkvelheor
49% · 125 games50% · 86 games
Skywrath MageFlash
Skywrath Mage
Undying
Undying633
50% · 67 games
Game 3prediction correct42:19
X3 53%No Bounty Hunter 47%
The model gave 53% on X3 — the game was taken by X3 in 37:40.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Terrorblade
Terrorbladenesfeer
45% · 109 games52% · 144 games
Faceless VoidShad
Faceless Void
Dawnbreaker
DawnbreakerShergarat
46% · 109 games47% · 71 game
PugnaAdzantick
Pugna
Pangolier
PangolierNattyNarwhal
51% · 145 games55% · 209 games
Death ProphetkAAN
Death Prophet
Clockwerk
Clockwerk633
46% · 110 games54% · 81 game
DazzleFlash
Dazzle
Dark Willow
Dark Willowvelheor
51% · 32 games
Model check result
Model favoriteX3 · 53%
Series resultX3 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3