Winline Dota 2 Champions League Season 10 · BO3
result vs prediction
X3win 2:0series probability
51%49%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Novaloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
X3
Bane
Kidaro · 12 games
Outworld Destroyeroften banned
NattyNarwhal · 8 games
Enchantressoften banned
Kidaro · 7 games
Hoodwink
velheor · 6 games
Linaoften banned
NattyNarwhal · 6 games
Puckoften banned
NattyNarwhal · 6 games
Medusaoften banned
nesfeer · 5 games
Phantom Lanceroften banned
DarkLord^ · 5 games
Nova
Dragon Knightoften banned
Bb3px · 8 games
Marsoften banned
Bb3px · 7 games
Storm Spiritoften banned
foryou · 6 games
Wraith Kingoften banned
paradise' · 6 games
Ember Spiritoften banned
foryou · 5 games
Phantom Lanceroften banned
paradise' · 5 games
Snapfire
so bad · 5 games
Death Prophetoften banned
so bad · 4 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Bane
437 picks · 276 bans
Mars
425 picks · 573 bans
Tiny
389 picks · 450 bans
Death Prophet
347 picks · 732 bans
Sand King
327 picks · 446 bans
Ember Spirit
320 picks · 467 bans
Pangolier
283 picks · 428 bans
Storm Spirit
282 picks · 419 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)38% vs 31%
Hero pool strength50% Nova
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total51% X3
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct24:5
X3 52%Nova 48%
The model gave 52% on X3 — the game was taken by X3 in 24:49.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Templar Assassinnesfeer
Tinyparadise'
Dragon KnightMastery
UnderlordBb3px
InvokerNattyNarwhal
Storm Spiritforyou
Skywrath Magevelheor
Baneantoha
Game 2prediction correct33:21
X3 50%Nova 50%
The model gave 50% on X3 — the game was taken by X3 in 33:29.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Chaos Knightnesfeer
Phantom Assassinparadise'
Storm SpiritNattyNarwhal
Leshracforyou
Dragon KnightMastery
Sand KingBb3px
Rubickvelheor
Baneantoha
Model check result
Model favoriteX3 · 51%
Series resultX3 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2