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European Pro League Season 6 · BO3
result vs prediction
X3win 2:1
series probability
54%46%
probability at match start · final 2:1
PSG Questloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

X3

Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
NattyNarwhal · 20 games
60%
Marci
Marcioften banned
velheor · 19 games
58%
Tiny
Tinyoften banned
velheor · 17 games
59%
Enigma
Enigmaoften banned
Shergarat · 15 games
53%
Tusk
Tusk
NattyNarwhal · 14 games
50%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
alone · 13 games
46%
Morphling
Morphlingsignature
nesfeer · 13 games
69%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
Shergarat · 12 games
58%

PSG Quest

Rubick
Rubicksignature
OmaR · 7 games
86%
Tiny
Tinyoften banned
OmaR · 6 games
33%
Death Prophet
Death Prophetoften banned
Wuiter · 4 games
100%
Tusk
Tusk
OmaR · 4 games
50%
Doom
Doomoften banned
Wuiter · 3 games
67%
Phoenix
Phoenix
Kaori · 3 games
67%
Slark
Slarkoften banned
TA2000 · 3 games
100%
Snapfire
Snapfire
Kaori · 3 games
100%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tusk
Tusk
398 picks · 388 bans
55%
Tiny
Tiny
356 picks · 358 bans
49%
Rubick
Rubick
341 picks · 232 bans
57%
Mirana
Mirana
285 picks · 291 bans
53%
Treant Protector
Treant Protector
218 picks · 269 bans
55%
Snapfire
Snapfire
215 picks · 113 bans
49%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
209 picks · 148 bans
50%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
189 picks · 525 bans
51%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)60% vs 83%
Hero pool strength52% PSG Quest
Head-to-head2 – 1
Model total54% X3
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct29:25
X3 50%PSG Quest 50%
The model gave 50% on X3 — the game was taken by X3 in 42:08.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Terrorblade
Terrorbladenesfeer
46% · 116 games52% · 104 games
Nature's ProphetTA2000
Nature's Prophet
Beastmaster
BeastmasterShergarat
52% · 163 games50% · 326 games
PangolierNo!ob
Pangolier
Ember Spirit
Ember SpiritNattyNarwhal
53% · 253 games48% · 63 games
Night StalkerWuiter
Night Stalker
Hoodwink
Hoodwinkalone
51% · 194 games48% · 90 games
PhoenixKaori
Phoenix
Silencer
Silencerdark
53% · 100 games46% · 243 games
RubickOmaR
Rubick
Game 2prediction missed12:27
X3 52%PSG Quest 48%
The model gave 52% on X3 — the game was taken by PSG Quest in 35:25.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Shadow Fiend
Shadow Fiendnesfeer
45% · 103 games52% · 168 games
MorphlingTA2000
Morphling
Tusk
TuskNattyNarwhal
54% · 237 games50% · 156 games
LeshracNo!ob
Leshrac
Elder Titan
Elder TitanShergarat
45% · 36 games49% · 222 games
MarsWuiter
Mars
Snapfire
Snapfirealone
48% · 332 games55% · 98 games
IoOmaR
Io
Treant Protector
Treant Protectordark
48% · 151 game51% · 215 games
ClockwerkKaori
Clockwerk
Game 3prediction correct32:22
X3 52%PSG Quest 48%
The model gave 52% on X3 — the game was taken by X3 in 47:11.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Drow Ranger
Drow Rangernesfeer
46% · 61 game47% · 281 game
TerrorbladeTA2000
Terrorblade
Ember Spirit
Ember SpiritNattyNarwhal
49% · 258 games54% · 173 games
ViperNo!ob
Viper
Death Prophet
Death ProphetShergarat
50% · 285 games49% · 231 game
DoomWuiter
Doom
Treant Protector
Treant Protectordark
51% · 164 games52% · 311 games
HoodwinkOmaR
Hoodwink
Tiny
Tinyalone
51% · 541 game52% · 313 games
ClockwerkKaori
Clockwerk
Model check result
Model favoriteX3 · 54%
Series resultX3 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3