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Winline Dota 2 Champions League Season 15 · BO3
result vs prediction
X3win 2:0
series probability
41%59%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Wayfarersloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

X3

Enigma
Enigmaoften banned
Shergarat · 22 games
55%
Puck
Puckoften banned
NattyNarwhal · 20 games
55%
Bane
Bane
antoha · 17 games
53%
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreakersignature
Shergarat · 17 games
71%
Zeus
Zeussignature
NattyNarwhal · 15 games
60%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
Shergarat · 14 games
57%
Tiny
Tiny
velheor · 14 games
57%
Jakiro
Jakirosignature
dark · 13 games
62%

Wayfarers

Death Prophet
Death Prophetsignature
Petushara · 12 games
83%
Enchantress
Enchantresssignature
HappyDyurara · 12 games
75%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
meLes · 9 games
33%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
Squad1x · 6 games
50%
Faceless Void
Faceless Voidsignature
DarkLord^ · 6 games
67%
Invoker
Invokersignature
Squad1x · 6 games
83%
Lina
Linasignature
Squad1x · 6 games
100%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingoften banned
Alberkaaa · 6 games
50%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
Tiny
591 picks · 450 bans
53%
Marci
Marci
457 picks · 665 bans
52%
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreaker
368 picks · 497 bans
44%
Puck
Puck
354 picks · 800 bans
54%
Winter Wyvern
Winter Wyvern
307 picks · 390 bans
55%
Death Prophet
Death Prophet
303 picks · 487 bans
50%
Dazzle
Dazzle
256 picks · 163 bans
53%
Zeus
Zeus
255 picks · 342 bans
44%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 82%
Hero pool strength55% Wayfarers
Head-to-head0 – 1
Model total59% Wayfarers
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed37:19
X3 44%Wayfarers 56%
The model gave 56% on Wayfarers — the game was taken by X3 in 46:09.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Ember Spirit
Ember SpiritNattyNarwhal
46% · 337 games49% · 109 games
Faceless VoidDarkLord^
Faceless Void
Morphling
Morphlingnesfeer
46% · 146 games52% · 243 games
PangolierSquad1x
Pangolier
Slardar
SlardarShergarat
54% · 50 games56% · 149 games
BeastmasterPetushara
Beastmaster
Dark Willow
Dark Willowvelheor
42% · 94 games60% · 142 games
Miranaxsvampire
Mirana
Marci
Marcidark
46% · 178 games50% · 162 games
EnchantressHappyDyurara
Enchantress
Game 2prediction missed45:20
X3 45%Wayfarers 55%
The model gave 55% on Wayfarers — the game was taken by X3 in 47:04.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Morphling
Morphlingnesfeer
48% · 141 game45% · 201 game
Ember SpiritSquad1x
Ember Spirit
Outworld Destroyer
Outworld DestroyerNattyNarwhal
50% · 43 games52% · 98 games
Faceless VoidDarkLord^
Faceless Void
Beastmaster
BeastmasterShergarat
54% · 187 games47% · 99 games
Dragon KnightPetushara
Dragon Knight
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maidenvelheor
55% · 62 games51% · 27 games
Ancient Apparitionxsvampire
Ancient Apparition
Marci
Marcidark
53% · 153 games48% · 161 game
EnchantressHappyDyurara
Enchantress
Model check result
Model favoriteWayfarers · 59%
Series resultX3 2:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2