Лига Ставок Dota 2 Champions League Season 16 · BO3
result vs prediction
X3win 2:0series probability
75%25%
probability at match start · final 2:0
WKWitch Kingsloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
X3
Enigmaoften banned
Shergarat · 22 games
Marcioften banned
velheor · 18 games
Dawnbreakersignature
Shergarat · 17 games
Puckoften banned
NattyNarwhal · 17 games
Jakiro
dark · 15 games
Zeussignature
NattyNarwhal · 15 games
Beastmasteroften banned
Shergarat · 14 games
Tinysignature
velheor · 13 games
Witch Kings
Nyx Assassin
Jeezy · 3 games
Drow Rangeroften banned
Coblackk · 2 games
Dark Willow
Jeezy · 1 game
Enigmaoften banned
Mr. Luck · 1 game
Terrorbladeoften banned
Coblackk · 1 game
Timbersawoften banned
Mr. Luck · 1 game
Troll Warlordoften banned
Coblackk · 1 game
Venomanceroften banned
Mr. Luck · 1 game
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Marci
388 picks · 592 bans
Tiny
362 picks · 266 bans
Undying
323 picks · 544 bans
Enigma
247 picks · 761 bans
Death Prophet
238 picks · 359 bans
Pangolier
231 picks · 335 bans
Primal Beast
217 picks · 409 bans
Batrider
210 picks · 736 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)55% vs 33%
Hero pool strength62% X3
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total75% X3
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct47:26
X3 66%Witch Kings 34%
The model gave 66% on X3 — the game was taken by X3 in 48:20.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
LeshracNattyNarwhal
Drow RangerCoblackk
Lifestealernesfeer
VisageMr. Luck
EnigmaShergarat
InvokerG.T.I
Tuskvelheor
Vengeful SpiritJeezy
Silencerdark
Game 2prediction correct19:2
X3 64%Witch Kings 36%
The model gave 64% on X3 — the game was taken by X3 in 16:13.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
BeastmasterShergarat
MedusaCoblackk
Naga Sirennesfeer
BroodmotherMr. Luck
Storm SpiritNattyNarwhal
PangolierG.T.I
Tinyvelheor
RubickJeezy
Miranadark
Model check result
Model favoriteX3 · 75%
Series resultX3 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2