?
arrow_backBack to match
ESL One Birmingham 2026. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
x5 Gamingloss 1:2
series probability
42%58%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Estar Backswin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

x5 Gaming

Sniper
Sniperoften banned
Pamplona · 6 games
33%
Tidehunter
Tidehunteroften banned
Hermit · 5 games
60%
Brewmaster
Brewmasteroften banned
Hermit · 3 games
0%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
Hermit · 2 games
50%
Disruptor
Disruptor
555k · 2 games
0%
Underlord
Underlord
Hermit · 2 games
50%
Weaver
Weaver
Pamplona · 2 games
100%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
mini-` · 1 game
0%

Estar Backs

Disruptor
Disruptor
Accel · 9 games
44%
Treant Protector
Treant Protectorsignature
Accel · 6 games
67%
Alchemist
Alchemist
bsK7- · 5 games
40%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopteroften banned
bsK7- · 4 games
75%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
Michael · 4 games
25%
Jakiro
Jakirooften banned
Accel · 4 games
25%
Omniknight
Omniknight
bsK7- · 4 games
25%
Shadow Fiend
Shadow Fiendoften banned
bsK7- · 4 games
75%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
Jakiro
537 picks · 811 bans
50%
Tusk
Tusk
505 picks · 357 bans
47%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
467 picks · 645 bans
50%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
452 picks · 570 bans
55%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demon
382 picks · 724 bans
54%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopter
356 picks · 571 bans
50%
Mars
Mars
343 picks · 469 bans
48%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
326 picks · 526 bans
59%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 50%
Hero pool strength52% Estar Backs
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total58% Estar Backs
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct46:42
x5 Gaming 48%Estar Backs 52%
The model gave 52% on Estar Backs — the game was taken by Estar Backs in 1:26:08.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Warlock
Warlock555k
57% · 234 games42% · 154 games
WindrangerbsK7-
Windranger
Slardar
SlardarHermit
58% · 120 games49% · 436 games
JakiroAccel
Jakiro
Tusk
TuskPamplona
49% · 236 games
Game 2prediction missed24:24
x5 Gaming 48%Estar Backs 52%
The model gave 52% on Estar Backs — the game was taken by x5 Gaming in 32:07.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Tidehunter
TidehunterHermit
40% · 41 game57% · 53 games
ViperbsK7-
Viper
Chen
Chen555k
51% · 23 games43% · 37 games
Crystal MaidenAccel
Crystal Maiden
Shadow Demon
Shadow DemonPamplona
59% · 26 games
Game 3prediction correct12:34
x5 Gaming 48%Estar Backs 52%
The model gave 52% on Estar Backs — the game was taken by Estar Backs in 32:11.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Tidehunter
TidehunterHermit
51% · 60 games50% · 68 games
SlarkbsK7-
Slark
Chen
Chen555k
62% · 52 games42% · 188 games
DisruptorAccel
Disruptor
Jakiro
JakiroPamplona
52% · 144 games
Model check result
Model favoriteEstar Backs · 58%
Series resultEstar Backs 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3