Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 2. Южная Америка. Открытые отборочные · BO3
result vs prediction
x5 Gamingwin 1:0series probability
44%56%
probability at match start · final 1:0
Fantasy Gamingloss 0:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
x5 Gaming
No games played over 6 months.
Fantasy Gaming
Drow Rangeroften banned
Arms · 1 game
Lifestealeroften banned
Arms · 1 game
Sniperoften banned
Arms · 1 game
Weaveroften banned
Arms · 1 game
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
753 picks · 481 bans
Tusk
535 picks · 444 bans
Tiny
532 picks · 389 bans
Treant Protector
530 picks · 580 bans
Nature's Prophet
410 picks · 603 bans
Snapfire
387 picks · 268 bans
Death Prophet
377 picks · 636 bans
Ember Spirit
353 picks · 752 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)67% vs 64%
Hero pool strength57% x5 Gaming
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total56% Fantasy Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed
x5 Gaming 44%Fantasy Gaming 56%
The model gave 56% on Fantasy Gaming — the game was taken by x5 Gaming.
Model check result
Model favoriteFantasy Gaming · 56%
Series resultx5 Gaming 1:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 1