Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 2. Южная Америка. Закрытые отборочные · BO3
result vs prediction
x5 Gamingloss 0:2series probability
49%51%
probability at match start · final 0:2
NLNo Limits Gamingwin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
x5 Gaming
Abaddonoften banned
Benny · 4 games
Mirana
Wij · 3 games
Witch Doctor
FCR · 2 games
Death Prophetoften banned
FCR · 1 game
Dragon Knightoften banned
FCR · 1 game
Enchantress
FCR · 1 game
Iooften banned
Wij · 1 game
Templar Assassinoften banned
Benny · 1 game
No Limits Gaming
Doomoften banned
drakesh1t · 2 games
Monkey Kingoften banned
Zxca · 2 games
Tusk
Zxca · 2 games
Abaddonoften banned
JP · 1 game
Crystal Maiden
CHAAANNN · 1 game
Dawnbreakeroften banned
CHAAANNN · 1 game
Grimstroke
CHAAANNN · 1 game
Hoodwink
Zxca · 1 game
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
799 picks · 560 bans
Tiny
569 picks · 400 bans
Treant Protector
522 picks · 557 bans
Tusk
512 picks · 419 bans
Nature's Prophet
460 picks · 743 bans
Death Prophet
415 picks · 842 bans
Snapfire
415 picks · 292 bans
Ember Spirit
367 picks · 866 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)78% vs 73%
Hero pool strength51% x5 Gaming
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total51% No Limits Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed23:40
x5 Gaming 51%No Limits Gaming 49%
The model gave 51% on x5 Gaming — the game was taken by No Limits Gaming in 42:12.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Chaos KnightBenny
MarciJP
EnchantressFCR
Ember SpiritAlone
MiranaWij
Doomdrakesh1t
46% · 190 games
HoodwinkZxca
45% · 85 games
SilencerCHAAANNN
Game 2prediction correct36:49
x5 Gaming 50%No Limits Gaming 50%
The model gave 50% on No Limits Gaming — the game was taken by No Limits Gaming in 55:00.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
WeaverBenny
TerrorbladeJP
EnchantressFCR
Death ProphetAlone
UndyingWij
Snapfiredrakesh1t
49% · 176 games
TuskZxca
55% · 62 games
DazzleCHAAANNN
Model check result
Model favoriteNo Limits Gaming · 51%
Series resultNo Limits Gaming 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game1 of 2