Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 3. Южная Америка. Второй дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
x5 Gamingloss 0:2series probability
29%71%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Universitario Esportswin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
x5 Gaming
Miranasignature
Wij · 8 games
Abaddonoften banned
Benny · 7 games
Witch Doctorsignature
Wij · 6 games
Dawnbreakeroften banned
Wij · 5 games
Enchantressoften banned
FCR · 5 games
Batrideroften banned
Tavo · 4 games
Morphlingoften banned
Benny · 4 games
Timbersawoften banned
FCR · 4 games
Universitario Esports
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
740 picks · 574 bans
Disruptor
606 picks · 523 bans
Beastmaster
558 picks · 1284 bans
Doom
551 picks · 1095 bans
Techies
499 picks · 563 bans
Pangolier
476 picks · 951 bans
Ember Spirit
466 picks · 1111 bans
Enchantress
458 picks · 645 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 73%
Hero pool strength52% x5 Gaming
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total71% Universitario Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct27:38
x5 Gaming 29%Universitario Esports 71%
The model gave 71% on Universitario Esports — the game was taken by Universitario Esports in 1:05:05.
Game 2prediction correct5:30
x5 Gaming 29%Universitario Esports 71%
The model gave 71% on Universitario Esports — the game was taken by Universitario Esports in 18:56.
Model check result
Model favoriteUniversitario Esports · 71%
Series resultUniversitario Esports 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2