Dota Pro Circuit 2021/2022 — Восточная Европа · BO1
result vs predictionXX5loss 0:1
series probability
31%69%
probability at match start · final 0:1
Hydrawin 1:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
X5
No games played over 6 months.
Hydra
Banesignature
Zayac · 9 games
Earth Spiritsignature
Askold · 8 games
Ember Spiritoften banned
Askold · 8 games
Dark Willowsignature
Muka · 6 games
Night Stalkersignature
Blizzy · 6 games
Chenoften banned
Zayac · 5 games
Invokeroften banned
Askold · 5 games
Iooften banned
Muka · 5 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Mars
268 picks · 394 bans
Tidehunter
267 picks · 394 bans
Monkey King
260 picks · 631 bans
Bane
241 picks · 174 bans
Lina
217 picks · 479 bans
Lion
215 picks · 108 bans
Weaver
213 picks · 405 bans
Void Spirit
209 picks · 265 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 56%
Hero pool strength55% Hydra
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total69% Hydra
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct14:29
X5 31%Hydra 69%
The model gave 69% on Hydra — the game was taken by Hydra in 32:46.
Model check result
Model favoriteHydra · 69%
Series resultHydra 0:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game1 of 1