Dota Pro Circuit 2021: Season 1 — СНГ 2-й дивизион · BO3
result vs predictionXXactJlepbIloss 0:2
series probability
38%62%
probability at match start · final 0:2
PuckChampwin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
XactJlepbI
Miranasignature
KingR · 8 games
Rubick
KingR · 8 games
Death Prophetoften banned
MagicaL · 6 games
Elder Titansignature
nofear · 6 games
Timbersawoften banned
Funn1k · 6 games
Troll Warlordsignature
lightless · 6 games
Nyx Assassinoften banned
KingR · 5 games
Outworld Destroyeroften banned
MagicaL · 5 games
PuckChamp
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Puck
180 picks · 408 bans
Mars
170 picks · 312 bans
Earth Spirit
160 picks · 126 bans
Void Spirit
158 picks · 222 bans
Phoenix
136 picks · 152 bans
Keeper of the Light
121 picks · 212 bans
Nyx Assassin
118 picks · 406 bans
Rubick
117 picks · 63 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)58% vs 71%
Hero pool strength55% XactJlepbI
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total62% PuckChamp
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct19:28
XactJlepbI 38%PuckChamp 62%
The model gave 62% on PuckChamp — the game was taken by PuckChamp in 33:43.
Game 2prediction correct16:32
XactJlepbI 38%PuckChamp 62%
The model gave 62% on PuckChamp — the game was taken by PuckChamp in 33:17.
Model check result
Model favoritePuckChamp · 62%
Series resultPuckChamp 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2