Dota Pro Circuit 2021: Season 1 — Открытые квалификации · BO3
result vs predictionXXactJlepbIwin 2:0
series probability
53%47%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Team Uniqueloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
XactJlepbI
Shadow Shaman
KingR · 4 games
Elder Titan
nofear · 3 games
Undyingoften banned
nofear · 3 games
Dragon Knightoften banned
MagicaL · 2 games
Drow Rangeroften banned
lightless · 2 games
Juggernautoften banned
lightless · 2 games
Keeper of the Lightoften banned
nofear · 2 games
Marsoften banned
Funn1k · 2 games
Team Unique
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Mars
60 picks · 127 bans
Puck
52 picks · 139 bans
Earth Spirit
51 picks · 41 bans
Void Spirit
47 picks · 80 bans
Phoenix
42 picks · 46 bans
Undying
40 picks · 61 bans
Monkey King
39 picks · 78 bans
Rubick
37 picks · 21 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)63% vs 57%
Hero pool strength57% XactJlepbI
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total53% XactJlepbI
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct34:7
XactJlepbI 53%Team Unique 47%
The model gave 53% on XactJlepbI — the game was taken by XactJlepbI in 32:56.
Game 2prediction correct32:22
XactJlepbI 53%Team Unique 47%
The model gave 53% on XactJlepbI — the game was taken by XactJlepbI in 32:39.
Model check result
Model favoriteXactJlepbI · 53%
Series resultXactJlepbI 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2