Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 2. ЮВА. Второй дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
XERXIAwin 2:1series probability
73%27%
probability at match start · final 2:1
HHorizonloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
XERXIA
No games played over 6 months.
Horizon
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
945 picks · 639 bans
Tiny
655 picks · 457 bans
Nature's Prophet
568 picks · 903 bans
Tusk
545 picks · 442 bans
Treant Protector
538 picks · 534 bans
Snapfire
508 picks · 337 bans
Death Prophet
484 picks · 1068 bans
Clockwerk
461 picks · 340 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)52% vs 40%
Hero pool strength50% XERXIA
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total73% XERXIA
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed32:13
XERXIA 73%Horizon 27%
The model gave 73% on XERXIA — the game was taken by Horizon in 48:05.
Game 2prediction missed53:41
XERXIA 73%Horizon 27%
The model gave 73% on XERXIA — the game was taken by Horizon in 1:14:56.
Game 3prediction missed15:24
XERXIA 73%Horizon 27%
The model gave 73% on XERXIA — the game was taken by Horizon in 36:59.
Model check result
Model favoriteXERXIA · 73%
Series resultXERXIA 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game0 of 3