Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 1. ЮВА. Второй дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
XERXIAloss 0:2series probability
47%53%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Myth Avenue Gamingwin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
XERXIA
No games played over 6 months.
Myth Avenue Gaming
Tusksignature
Hishge · 16 games
Miranasignature
RR · 14 games
Rubicksignature
RR · 9 games
Beastmastersignature
zeal · 8 games
Linasignature
xsilearn · 8 games
Naga Sirenoften banned
Meracle · 7 games
Leshracsignature
xsilearn · 6 games
Nature's Prophetsignature
zeal · 6 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
618 picks · 400 bans
Tusk
545 picks · 528 bans
Tiny
531 picks · 431 bans
Treant Protector
428 picks · 511 bans
Mirana
376 picks · 373 bans
Snapfire
355 picks · 199 bans
Clockwerk
318 picks · 210 bans
Death Prophet
316 picks · 473 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)32% vs 50%
Hero pool strength62% Myth Avenue Gaming
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total53% Myth Avenue Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct31:15
XERXIA 47%Myth Avenue Gaming 53%
The model gave 53% on Myth Avenue Gaming — the game was taken by Myth Avenue Gaming in 38:03.
Game 2prediction correct32:26
XERXIA 47%Myth Avenue Gaming 53%
The model gave 53% on Myth Avenue Gaming — the game was taken by Myth Avenue Gaming in 35:07.
Model check result
Model favoriteMyth Avenue Gaming · 53%
Series resultMyth Avenue Gaming 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2