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BTS Pro Series Season 14: ЮВА · BO3
result vs prediction
XERXIAloss 1:2
series probability
33%67%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Polaris Esportswin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

XERXIA

No games played over 6 months.

Polaris Esports

Marci
Marcisignature
Boomy · 14 games
71%
Lina
Linasignature
Mac · 12 games
75%
Lich
Lichsignature
Eyyou · 10 games
60%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetsignature
Bok · 9 games
89%
Tusk
Tusksignature
Bok · 9 games
78%
Undying
Undyingoften banned
Force · 9 games
33%
Primal Beast
Primal Beastsignature
Force · 8 games
63%
Death Prophet
Death Prophetsignature
cml · 7 games
71%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
Rubick
576 picks · 385 bans
53%
Tusk
Tusk
522 picks · 512 bans
54%
Tiny
Tiny
514 picks · 428 bans
49%
Treant Protector
Treant Protector
401 picks · 470 bans
56%
Mirana
Mirana
371 picks · 359 bans
54%
Snapfire
Snapfire
338 picks · 179 bans
45%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
306 picks · 196 bans
58%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
304 picks · 739 bans
48%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)35% vs 71%
Hero pool strength59% Polaris Esports
Head-to-head1 – 1
Model total67% Polaris Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct20:6
XERXIA 33%Polaris Esports 67%
The model gave 67% on Polaris Esports — the game was taken by Polaris Esports in 30:39.
Game 2prediction correct31:11
XERXIA 33%Polaris Esports 67%
The model gave 67% on Polaris Esports — the game was taken by Polaris Esports in 33:26.
Game 3prediction correct39:29
XERXIA 33%Polaris Esports 67%
The model gave 67% on Polaris Esports — the game was taken by Polaris Esports in 1:18:06.
Model check result
Model favoritePolaris Esports · 67%
Series resultPolaris Esports 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game3 of 3