Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 2. ЮВА. Второй дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
XERXIAwin 2:0series probability
72%28%
probability at match start · final 2:0
SPAWN Teamloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
XERXIA
No games played over 6 months.
SPAWN Team
Tusk
dalul · 26 games
Rubick
TraVins · 22 games
Miranasignature
TraVins · 20 games
Tiny
dalul · 19 games
Marcioften banned
dalul · 14 games
Morphlingoften banned
Jikroy · 13 games
Silencer
TraVins · 13 games
Disruptor
TraVins · 11 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
1004 picks · 698 bans
Tiny
652 picks · 480 bans
Nature's Prophet
597 picks · 948 bans
Tusk
542 picks · 432 bans
Disruptor
537 picks · 397 bans
Snapfire
533 picks · 368 bans
Death Prophet
514 picks · 1200 bans
Clockwerk
504 picks · 380 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)57% vs 35%
Hero pool strength50% XERXIA
Head-to-head1 – 1
Model total72% XERXIA
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed38:20
XERXIA 72%SPAWN Team 28%
The model gave 72% on XERXIA — the game was taken by SPAWN Team in 43:04.
Game 2prediction missed38:13
XERXIA 72%SPAWN Team 28%
The model gave 72% on XERXIA — the game was taken by SPAWN Team in 30:20.
Model check result
Model favoriteXERXIA · 72%
Series resultXERXIA 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game0 of 2