Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 2. ЮВА. Второй дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
XERXIAwin 2:0series probability
71%29%
probability at match start · final 2:0
UD Vessuwanloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
XERXIA
No games played over 6 months.
UD Vessuwan
Rubick
boombell · 16 games
Tiny
Beebie · 13 games
Mirana
LionaX · 11 games
Pangolieroften banned
Beebie · 11 games
Snapfire
LionaX · 11 games
Crystal Maiden
LionaX · 8 games
Treant Protector
LionaX · 8 games
Undyingsignature
LionaX · 8 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
1000 picks · 687 bans
Tiny
653 picks · 479 bans
Nature's Prophet
599 picks · 955 bans
Tusk
549 picks · 433 bans
Snapfire
529 picks · 360 bans
Disruptor
522 picks · 382 bans
Death Prophet
515 picks · 1186 bans
Clockwerk
502 picks · 377 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)56% vs 41%
Hero pool strength52% XERXIA
Head-to-head3 – 0
Model total71% XERXIA
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed30:16
XERXIA 71%UD Vessuwan 29%
The model gave 71% on XERXIA — the game was taken by UD Vessuwan in 37:26.
Game 2prediction missed31:19
XERXIA 71%UD Vessuwan 29%
The model gave 71% on XERXIA — the game was taken by UD Vessuwan in 33:10.
Model check result
Model favoriteXERXIA · 71%
Series resultXERXIA 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game0 of 2