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DreamLeague Season 22 · BO2
result vs prediction
Xtreme Gamingloss 1:1
series probability
69%31%
probability at match start · final 1:1
1w Teamloss 1:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Xtreme Gaming

Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maidensignature
Dy · 11 games
82%
Primal Beast
Primal Beastoften banned
Xxs · 9 games
44%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunnersignature
Xxs · 8 games
100%
Batrider
Batridersignature
XinQ · 6 games
83%
Mars
Marssignature
Xxs · 6 games
100%
Mirana
Miranasignature
XinQ · 6 games
100%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
XinQ · 5 games
60%
Magnus
Magnusoften banned
Xxs · 5 games
40%

1w Team

Gyrocopter
Gyrocopter
RESPECT · 17 games
59%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Chira JUNIOR · 17 games
47%
Tiny
Tiny
swedenstrong · 17 games
59%
Magnus
Magnussignature
Cloud · 16 games
69%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritsignature
Chira JUNIOR · 15 games
80%
Luna
Lunasignature
Munkushi~ · 15 games
73%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetsignature
RESPECT · 13 games
69%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
Cloud · 11 games
36%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Lion
Lion
376 picks · 327 bans
53%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
333 picks · 480 bans
58%
Vengeful Spirit
Vengeful Spirit
329 picks · 316 bans
52%
Pangolier
Pangolier
276 picks · 400 bans
51%
Mars
Mars
269 picks · 371 bans
56%
Techies
Techies
266 picks · 184 bans
55%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
261 picks · 144 bans
51%
Tiny
Tiny
256 picks · 187 bans
48%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)57% vs 22%
Hero pool strength57% Xtreme Gaming
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total69% Xtreme Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct38:31
Xtreme Gaming 58%1w Team 42%
The model gave 58% on Xtreme Gaming — the game was taken by Xtreme Gaming in 56:36.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Phantom Assassin
Phantom AssassinAme
48% · 67 games46% · 102 games
TerrorbladeMunkushi~
Terrorblade
Slardar
SlardarXxs
43% · 31 game51% · 200 games
PangolierChira JUNIOR
Pangolier
Grimstroke
GrimstrokeXinQ
48% · 145 games48% · 71 game
MarsCloud
Mars
Bounty Hunter
Bounty HunterXm
64% · 76 games49% · 101 game
Skywrath Mageswedenstrong
Skywrath Mage
Undying
UndyingDy
50% · 217 games49% · 62 games
Crystal MaidenRESPECT
Crystal Maiden
Game 2prediction missed8:35
Xtreme Gaming 61%1w Team 39%
The model gave 61% on Xtreme Gaming — the game was taken by 1w Team in 25:33.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Phantom Assassin
Phantom AssassinAme
55% · 32 games49% · 85 games
Naga SirenMunkushi~
Naga Siren
Tidehunter
TidehunterXxs
42% · 84 games59% · 30 games
LeshracChira JUNIOR
Leshrac
Pugna
PugnaXm
54% · 129 games57% · 99 games
MarsCloud
Mars
Muerta
MuertaXinQ
45% · 55 games43% · 37 games
Ioswedenstrong
Io
Crystal Maiden
Crystal MaidenDy
55% · 100 games44% · 149 games
DisruptorRESPECT
Disruptor
Model check result
Model favoriteXtreme Gaming · 69%
Accuracy by game1 of 2