?
arrow_backBack to match
Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 1. Китай. Первый дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
Xtreme Gamingwin 2:1
series probability
66%34%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Aster.Ariesloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Xtreme Gaming

Death Prophet
Death Prophetsignature
Paparazi · 13 games
77%
Earth Spirit
Earth Spirit
Pyw · 8 games
50%
Shadow Fiend
Shadow Fiendoften banned
Paparazi · 8 games
50%
Nyx Assassin
Nyx Assassinoften banned
Pyw · 7 games
57%
Lina
Linasignature
Paparazi · 6 games
83%
Lion
Lion
Pyw · 6 games
50%
Marci
Marcisignature
Pyw · 6 games
67%
Enigma
Enigmaoften banned
ELeVeN · 5 games
40%

Aster.Aries

Death Prophet
Death Prophetoften banned
Xwy · 8 games
50%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
Xwy · 4 games
75%
Marci
Marcioften banned
生死 · 4 games
25%
Morphling
Morphlingoften banned
Ulu · 4 games
50%
Winter Wyvern
Winter Wyvernoften banned
RedPanda · 4 games
75%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
RedPanda · 3 games
67%
Templar Assassin
Templar Assassinoften banned
Xwy · 3 games
33%
Brewmaster
Brewmasteroften banned
TK · 2 games
50%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
Tiny
341 picks · 339 bans
48%
Tusk
Tusk
335 picks · 329 bans
59%
Mirana
Mirana
220 picks · 226 bans
55%
Pangolier
Pangolier
212 picks · 539 bans
53%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
209 picks · 145 bans
53%
Snapfire
Snapfire
202 picks · 113 bans
44%
Leshrac
Leshrac
201 picks · 433 bans
59%
Silencer
Silencer
199 picks · 234 bans
49%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)46% vs 50%
Hero pool strength54% Xtreme Gaming
Head-to-head1 – 1
Model total66% Xtreme Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed30:38
Xtreme Gaming 59%Aster.Aries 41%
The model gave 59% on Xtreme Gaming — the game was taken by Aster.Aries in 46:15.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Shadow Fiend
Shadow FiendPaparazi
42% · 85 games55% · 73 games
UrsaUlu
Ursa
Lifestealer
LifestealerGhost
55% · 101 game51% · 118 games
LeshracWhite丶Album
Leshrac
Magnus
MagnusJT-
51% · 40 games57% · 35 games
Dark Seer生死
Dark Seer
Snapfire
SnapfirePyw
51% · 275 games50% · 313 games
TinyTK
Tiny
Treant Protector
Treant ProtectorDy
53% · 111 games33% · 73 games
PhoenixRedPanda
Phoenix
Game 2prediction correct21:5
Xtreme Gaming 58%Aster.Aries 42%
The model gave 58% on Xtreme Gaming — the game was taken by Xtreme Gaming in 26:03.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Drow Ranger
Drow RangerGhost
34% · 50 games53% · 84 games
Shadow FiendUlu
Shadow Fiend
Death Prophet
Death ProphetPaparazi
50% · 173 games49% · 36 games
Dark Seer生死
Dark Seer
Tidehunter
TidehunterJT-
59% · 72 games53% · 150 games
TuskWhite丶Album
Tusk
Primal Beast
Primal BeastPyw
50% · 81 game50% · 47 games
BrewmasterRedPanda
Brewmaster
Disruptor
DisruptorDy
50% · 96 games49% · 155 games
HoodwinkTK
Hoodwink
Game 3prediction correct36:32
Xtreme Gaming 57%Aster.Aries 43%
The model gave 57% on Xtreme Gaming — the game was taken by Xtreme Gaming in 46:50.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Sniper
SniperPaparazi
46% · 40 games42% · 75 games
Doom生死
Doom
Morphling
MorphlingGhost
57% · 134 games54% · 24 games
SpectreUlu
Spectre
Magnus
MagnusJT-
62% · 19 games47% · 148 games
Death ProphetWhite丶Album
Death Prophet
Shadow Shaman
Shadow ShamanPyw
52% · 116 games46% · 104 games
Monkey KingTK
Monkey King
Treant Protector
Treant ProtectorDy
58% · 108 games42% · 66 games
PhoenixRedPanda
Phoenix
Model check result
Model favoriteXtreme Gaming · 66%
Series resultXtreme Gaming 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3