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The International 2023 — Квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Xtreme Gamingwin 2:0
series probability
87%13%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Aster.Ariesloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Xtreme Gaming

Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritoften banned
Paparazi · 22 games
55%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
Paparazi · 19 games
53%
Mirana
Miranasignature
Dy · 18 games
61%
Rubick
Rubick
Kaka · 18 games
50%
Alchemist
Alchemistsignature
Ghost · 14 games
79%
Doom
Doomsignature
JT- · 13 games
77%
Elder Titan
Elder Titansignature
Dy · 12 games
67%
Bloodseeker
Bloodseekeroften banned
Ghost · 11 games
45%

Aster.Aries

Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
White丶Album · 11 games
27%
Enchantress
Enchantressoften banned
TK · 9 games
22%
Phoenix
Phoenix
RedPanda · 7 games
29%
Marci
Marcioften banned
生死 · 5 games
60%
Morphling
Morphlingoften banned
Ulu · 5 games
40%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonoften banned
RedPanda · 5 games
60%
Silencer
Silenceroften banned
RedPanda · 5 games
20%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
生死 · 4 games
0%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Techies
Techies
607 picks · 644 bans
55%
Rubick
Rubick
472 picks · 262 bans
47%
Batrider
Batrider
425 picks · 856 bans
52%
Spirit Breaker
Spirit Breaker
384 picks · 390 bans
49%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
375 picks · 755 bans
48%
Doom
Doom
353 picks · 801 bans
54%
Timbersaw
Timbersaw
347 picks · 861 bans
50%
Pugna
Pugna
344 picks · 398 bans
54%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)39% vs 36%
Hero pool strength61% Xtreme Gaming
Head-to-head3 – 0
Model total87% Xtreme Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct28:9
Xtreme Gaming 73%Aster.Aries 27%
The model gave 73% on Xtreme Gaming — the game was taken by Xtreme Gaming in 33:36.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Morphling
MorphlingGhost
56% · 97 games46% · 32 games
GyrocopterUlu
Gyrocopter
Doom
DoomJT-
56% · 124 games49% · 127 games
Dragon KnightXwy
Dragon Knight
Puck
PuckXm
52% · 72 games42% · 71 game
Legion Commander生死
Legion Commander
Mirana
MiranaXinQ
58% · 116 games42% · 127 games
PhoenixRedPanda
Phoenix
Vengeful Spirit
Vengeful SpiritDy
63% · 4 games44% · 56 games
Earth Spiritmercy
Earth Spirit
Game 2prediction correct19:21
Xtreme Gaming 71%Aster.Aries 29%
The model gave 71% on Xtreme Gaming — the game was taken by Xtreme Gaming in 43:59.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Gyrocopter
GyrocopterGhost
47% · 11 games57% · 120 games
Templar AssassinXwy
Templar Assassin
Underlord
UnderlordJT-
54% · 40 games57% · 42 games
RazorUlu
Razor
Batrider
BatriderXm
50% · 74 games46% · 111 games
Riki生死
Riki
Rubick
RubickXinQ
47% · 243 games48% · 79 games
Dark Willowmercy
Dark Willow
Abaddon
AbaddonDy
47% · 22 games44% · 38 games
BrewmasterRedPanda
Brewmaster
Model check result
Model favoriteXtreme Gaming · 87%
Series resultXtreme Gaming 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2